GOP governors endure early trials, gird for 2014

By Thomas Beaumont

Associated Press

Published: Monday, June 3 2013 12:00 a.m. MDT

In this Feb. 19, 2013 file photo, Ohio Gov. John Kasich delivers his State of the State address in Lima, Ohio. As they gear up for re-election, many GOP governors, particularly those across the upper Midwest, find themselves in positions of strength, having benefited from improving economies, if not changes of heart over their policies. Kasich scored a victory when the legislature approved his agenda to lower taxes on income and businesses, specifically the state’s growing energy sector. And unemployment has tumbled steadily, from more than 9 percent when he took office to 7 percent in April.

Rick Osentoski, File, Associated Press

DES MOINES, Iowa — Republican governors took over statehouses across the country after the 2010 elections and immediately acted on promises to usher in a new era of budget cutting and conservative labor policies. Public backlash followed just as quickly; they watched their popularity drop while Democrats talked of political retribution.

But now, as they gear up for their re-election campaigns, many GOP governors — particularly those across the upper Midwest — find themselves in positions of strength, having benefited from improving economies if not changes of heart over their policies.

Their improved standing presents stark challenges for Democrats, who had long predicted voters would reject what they called Republican overreach.

President Barack Obama's party now carries the burden not just of finding strong challengers, which is proving difficult, but also of trying to figure out how to take down governors who aren't as vulnerable as they had anticipated — Wisconsin's Scott Walker, Ohio's John Kasich, Michigan's Rick Snyder and Iowa's Terry Branstad.

They won elections as part of the GOP's banner 2010. Republicans prevailed in 23 out of 37 gubernatorial elections that year, taking control of 11 states where Democrats had held the office. Now, there are 30 Republican governors. And of those, 20 are up for re-election in 2014 — many in states that Obama carried last fall.

Democrats plan to make the case in the runup to next fall's elections that Obama — not the Republican governors — are responsible for the economic recovery.

"They'll try to take credit for the national economic recovery, but voters in these states aren't buying it," Danny Kanner of the Democratic Governors Association predicted about the GOP incumbents.

To be sure, some swing-state Republican governors elected in 2010 are in serious trouble.

Few voters say Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania and Rick Scott in Florida are doing a good job. Neither has been able to capitalize on their states' economic recovery. Corbett also faces questions about his effectiveness handling an investigation about sex abuse at Penn State University while he was attorney general. And Scott's efforts to shift to the center politically haven't seemed to help his standing.

Sensing opportunity, several Democrats are running in Pennsylvania, while big names such as Sen. Bill Nelson and former Gov. Charlie Crist are weighing Democratic candidacies in Florida.

And a few other Republican governors up for re-election have stayed reasonably popular, such as New Mexico's Susana Martinez and Brian Sandoval in Nevada, which was a battleground state in 2012.

In the Midwest, the four GOP governors stand out as an important bloc as Republicans look to lay the groundwork for Midwestern victories in the presidential race in 2016, when the region will offer a significant chunk of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.

"In a nation as closely divided as ours, a percent of the vote here or there will really matter in 2016. Having a Republican governor in a swing state can deliver that," said Phil Musser, a national Republican strategist and adviser to Martinez.

The story is remarkably similar in each of the four states, where in 2010 pro-business conservatives won seats Democrats had held. They set about reversing years of Democratic control in the name of economic competitiveness. Voters initially balked. Then the unemployment rate shrunk. Voters grew happier. And Republicans claimed credit.

Perhaps no one illustrates this dynamic better than Wisconsin's Walker.

He faced angry crowds in the tens of thousands who vowed to oust him two years ago for signing legislation that stripped public employees of their bargaining power.

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