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Tough times ahead in post-Chavez Venezuela

By Fabiola Sanchez

Associated Press

Published: Monday, April 1 2013 3:03 p.m. MDT

FILE - In this Feb. 23, 2013 file photo, a protester holds up a fake bill that reads in Spanish "This is the revolution. Poor Bolivar" with the value of 100 crossed out and 54 written next to it, at an opposition demonstration against of the devaluation of the currency in Caracas, Venezuela. Thousands of companies suffer under currency controls that all but deny them the U.S. dollars they need to import vital items into this oil-rich country, from food to cars to spare parts, even gasoline. Venezuelan firms must sell their wares at state-controlled prices that don't reflect the 22 percent inflation rate, the highest in Latin America. Even Venezuela's socialist government admits the controls don't work, but its attention is focused on the April 14, 2013 election to replace the late President Hugo Chavez.

Ariana Cubillos, File, Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela — Doing business in post-Hugo Chavez Venezuela is not for the faint of heart.

Thousands of companies suffer under currency controls that all but deny them the U.S. dollars they need to import vital items into this oil-rich country, from food to cars to spare parts — even gasoline. Venezuelan firms must sell their wares at state-controlled prices that don't reflect the 22 percent inflation rate, the highest in Latin America. Even Venezuela's socialist government admits the controls don't work — but its attention is focused on the April 14 election to replace the late President Hugo Chavez.

It's a largely improvised economic policy that, despite oil earnings, has turned people's lives upside down and produced shortages of flour, coffee, butter and medicines. It's also a mess that will immediately challenge whoever becomes the president of this 28 million-person country.

Jeni Suarez, a 51-year-old Caracas homemaker, experienced the crisis first hand after waiting three months for a colonoscopy at a public hospital. When she got there, doctors told her they needed new parts from abroad to perform the procedure, and the deliveries weren't coming any time soon because the hospital didn't get dollars from Venezuela's government to buy them.

"I have an intense pain, and I don't know what to do," Suarez said after the appointment at Jose Maria Vargas Hospital.

Such economic headaches have, in fact, defined much of the late president's legacy here.

Chavez imposed draconian currency controls a decade ago to punish business leaders who had mounted a crippling opposition strike. He was also trying to stem the flight of dollars abroad as political instability spooked investors.

"The policy of currency controls is very negative for the country and hasn't met any of its objectives," said Alejandro Grisanti, an analyst at investment bank Barclays Capital. "It hasn't stopped capital flight. It hasn't stopped inflation, (and) it has been very costly for the treasury."

Neither Chavez successor Nicolas Maduro nor opposition candidate Gov. Henrique Capriles has delivered specific proposals to address the crisis, said Alejandro Gutierrez, an economics professor at the University of the Andes. The most effective solution would likely involve unpopular measures such as a mass devaluation of the currency to spur exports, or an end to price controls.

Capriles has spent much of the campaign trying to assure Chavistas he will not take away their government-funded social programs, while Maduro vows to continue the late leader's legacy, which would include the controls.

"We are facing a transition situation, and they are going to wait until this situation is cleared up," Gutierrez said Monday.

Only Capriles has suggested a possible way of injecting more dollars into the economy: Ending subsidized oil exports to Cuba that began under Chavez.

The late leader had aided his allies by providing oil at preferential terms to more than a dozen countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Cuba receives Venezuelan oil worth around $3.2 billion a year, estimates Jorge Pinon, a University of Texas energy analyst. Nicaragua gets about $1.2 billion worth of oil, according to economist Nestor Avendano.

Yet whoever wins the vote won't be able to put off action indefinitely. The wave of national mourning for Chavez and the heated campaign have so far masked the plight of dollar-poor food makers, dairy farmers, ranchers and auto manufacturers. But consumers are feeling the shortages of appliances, automobiles and staples such as flour, coffee, butter and medicines.

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