A prominent national expert, recently retired Medicare chief actuary Rick Foster, said the report does "a credible job" of estimating potential enrollment and costs under the law, "without trying to tilt the answers in any particular direction."
"Having said that," Foster added, "actuaries tend to be financially conservative, so the various assumptions might be more inclined to consider what might go wrong than to anticipate that everything will work beautifully." Actuaries use statistics and economic theory to make long-range cost projections for insurance and pension programs sponsored by businesses and government. The society is headquartered near Chicago.
Bohn, the actuary who worked on the study, acknowledged it did not attempt to estimate the effect of subsidies, insurer competition and other factors that could offset cost increases. She said the goal was to look at the underlying cost of medical care.
"We don't see ourselves as a political organization," Bohn added. "We are trying to figure out what the situation at hand is."
On the plus side, the report found the law will cover more than 32 million currently uninsured Americans when fully phased in. And some states — including New York and Massachusetts — will see double-digit declines in costs for claims in the individual market.
Uncertainty over costs has been a major issue since the law passed three years ago, and remains so just months before a big push to cover the uninsured gets rolling Oct. 1. Middle-class households will be able to purchase subsidized private insurance in new marketplaces, while low-income people will be steered to Medicaid and other safety net programs. States are free to accept or reject a Medicaid expansion also offered under the law.
Society of Actuaries: http://www.soa.org/NewlyInsured/
AP White House Correspondent Julie Pace contributed to this report.
- Farm owners fined for refusing to host a...
- Another American hostage at risk by Islamic...
- Police, protesters collide again in Ferguson
- Twitter tries to block images of James Foley...
- Facebook makes the most obvious move ever...
- Colleges add luxury touches to new football...
- Allow student loan bankruptcies, but hold...
- Texas Gov. Perry assembles high-powered legal...
- Farm owners fined for refusing to host... 41
- 'Don't know' if Missouri teen shot with... 25
- Police, protesters collide again in... 24
- Texas Gov. Perry says indictment is... 22
- Obama heading back to DC in rare... 21
- Texas Gov. Perry assembles high-powered... 21
- Emerging solar plants scorch birds in... 14
- Allow student loan bankruptcies,... 14