SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea's nuclear agitations follow a well-worn route. It starts with a long-range rocket launch. The United Nations punishes the act with sanctions. And Pyongyang responds by conducting a nuclear test.
It happened in 2006, and again in 2009. With the U.N. leveling new sanctions, the world is about to find out whether North Korea's young new leader will detonate an atomic bomb, or step away from the path his father laid.
The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously Tuesday to adopt a resolution, the third of its kind since 2006, condemning a North Korean rocket launch as violating a ban on missile activity. North Korea's Foreign Ministry swiftly rejected the move early Wednesday, maintaining that the launch was a peaceful bid to explore space and accusing the U.S. of "hostile" intent in leading the push for punishment.
In the face of what it considers to be a U.S. threat, North Korea "will take steps for physical counteraction to bolster the military capabilities for self-defense, including the nuclear deterrence, both qualitatively and quantitatively," the ministry warned in a statement.
Analysts say the wording hints at a nuclear test. In 2006 and 2009, North Korea responded to similar Security Council punishment by detonating devices underground, which experts say is a key step in the process of developing an atomic bomb small enough to mount on a long-range missile.
"Things are lining up to make a nuclear test likely," said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst with the International Crisis Group. "There's a long-term pattern. The logic is to demonstrate your strength."
But this time, North Korea has a new leader, Kim Jong Un, who took power in December 2011 following the death of his father, Kim Jong Il. How he will handle the standoff with the international community remains unclear.
While sending a satellite into space was his father's dying wish, the young Kim has focused less on defense, saying in a recent speech that "the building of an economic giant" is his country's most pressing task. He's also hinted at a desire to make a shift in foreign policy by saying publicly that he is open to reaching out to former foes.
At the same time, Kim has already thrown away one agreement with the United States by going ahead with a rocket launch in April, and further antagonized the international community with the launch that put North Korea's first satellite into space last month.
It would be burdensome to order a nuclear test that would risk additional sanctions at a time when Kim wants to revive the economy, said Koh Yu-hwan, professor of North Korean Studies at Seoul's Dongguk University. He said that with President Barack Obama starting a second term and a new South Korean government taking office next month, Kim will be watching to see how their foreign policies toward North Korea take shape before making any big moves.
A nuclear test could also strain Pyongyang's relationship with Beijing. China, North Korea's main ally and traditional protector, broke form in agreeing to the binding Security Council resolution and an expansion of sanctions.