Since the summer, both campaigns have been the flip sides of the same analysis: For Obama, avoid talking about the performance of the economy and destroy Romneys credibility. For Romney, talk about the economy and establish that he is not a monster. Neither approach will be remembered for its creativity. There is no reason that Obama could not have added a more compelling second-term agenda. And Romney may come to regret his lack of effective outreach. Demography is a harsh, inexorable opponent. On the morning after Romneys victory celebration — if there is one — Republicans will wake with a Hispanic hangover.
An Obama win — with an assist by Ohio — would vindicate the presidents campaign game plan. But the Schoen Caddell prediction still holds: Obama will have left the nation divided, disillusioned and less governable.
Michael Gersons email address is email@example.com.
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