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New jobless number hold political significance

By Jim Kuhnhenn

Associated Press

Published: Friday, Oct. 5 2012 8:27 a.m. MDT

FILE - In this Oct. 4, 2012 file photo, President Barack Obama speaks at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, Wis. President Barack Obama, reeling from a poor debate performance, won a valuable reprieve Friday with a reduced unemployment number in September that brought the jobless rate down to a level unseen since January 2009 when he took office.

Andy Manis, File, Associated Press

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WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama, reeling from a poor debate performance, won a valuable reprieve Friday with a reduced unemployment number in September that brought the jobless rate down to a level unseen since January 2009 when he took office.

The new threshold carries more political than economic weight. The Labor Department reported that employers added 114,000 jobs in September, slightly better than expected but still below levels needed to sustain a reduction in unemployment.

But the report held several good signs for Obama as he and rival Mitt Romney enter the final four weeks of the presidential campaign in an election dominated by the economy and high unemployment. The economy created 86,000 more jobs in July and August than initially estimated, a sign of the volatility of the jobless reports and their unreliability as a snapshot of the economy.

The Labor Department also reported wage growth in September, evidence of more people looking for work.

Still, Romney cast the new reports as further sign of a weak economy under Obama.

"This is not what a real recovery looks like," he said in a statement, noting that the figures showed fewer jobs created in September than in August and, that if people who have dropped out of the labor force were counted, the unemployment rate would be closer to 11 percent.

The new numbers come less than 36 hours after the economy dominated the first presidential debate of the general election, reinvigorating Romney and leaving Obama on the defensive.

After Friday's numbers there is only one more unemployment report left before the Nov. 6 election.

Jobs have been a central theme in this election. The words "job" and "jobs" were among the most frequently mentioned in Wednesday's debate in Denver, uttered at a rate of more than once every two minutes in a 90-minute showdown.

A recent Associated Press-GfK poll found that the vast majority of voters already have settled on a candidate, but 17 percent of likely voters are considered persuadable — either because they're undecided or showing soft support for Obama or Romney. Roughly 56 percent of persuadables approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president, but fewer, 47 percent, approve of his handling of the economy.

"The main effect of this particular number is going to be primarily political," said Bruce Bartlett, an economist in President George H.W. Bush's administration. "It gives Obama a talking point, something to get people's attention off his debate performance."

While employers are hiring, the pace has been far too slow to reduce unemployment in recent months. Still, while the slow recovery has been a drag on Obama's re-election hopes, the monthly reminders of joblessness have not markedly altered the trajectory of the presidential campaign.

For instance, August's weak hiring numbers were released just a day after Obama delivered his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention. Yet they didn't appear to interfere with Obama's post-convention bounce in public opinion polls or with perceptions that he would be as good as Romney at creating jobs.

The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 8.1 percent and 8.3 percent since January after being stuck at between 8.9 percent and 9.1 percent for 10 months in 2011. The new report gives Obama allies reason to rejoice if for no other reason than the rate dropped below the stubborn 8 percent mark that had become a political and psychological barrier. No president has been re-elected with unemployment above 8 percent since the Great Depression.

Romney has been inveighing against Obama as ineffective in job creation, noting time and again that the unemployment rate has been above 8 percent for 43 straight months. Speaking in Denver on Thursday morning, Romney said Obama would raise taxes on small businesses, "which will kill jobs."

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