Economic recovery likely benefiting presidential winner

By Jim Kuhnhenn

Published: Monday, Oct. 1 2012 11:08 p.m. MDT

In this Sept. 30, 2012 file photo, President Barack Obama speaks in Las Vegas. Eventually, the economic recovery will improve _ whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney is in the White House. That's what many economic outlooks project. History is on their side. And the president - and the party - occupying the Oval Office in 2016 will reap the benefits. But first, Obama or Romney, together with Congress, will have to pull back from the universally unacceptable, politically created fiscal abyss facing the nation at year?s end. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, File)

Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Eventually, the economic recovery will pick up steam — whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney is in the White House.

That's what many economic outlooks project. And the president — and the party occupying the Oval Office — will reap some of the benefits.

But first, Obama or Romney, together with Congress, will have to pull back from the widely deplored "fiscal cliff," the politically created budget abyss facing the nation at year's end.

The betting on that ranges from mild optimism to nail-biting anxiety. But most economic analysts agree that if Washington resolves that looming crisis, Americans can expect faster economic growth and lower unemployment.

"Regardless of who is president, if the next president is able to nail down these fiscal issues, then I do think we're off and running," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

That would be welcome news for a nation that has been struggling through a slow comeback from the deepest recession and fiscal crisis since the Great Depression — and needs to shore itself up quickly in the event Europe slips back into recession.

Six countries in the eurozone — Greece, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Malta and Portugal — already are in recession. And the continent's struggles were underscored Monday by a report that unemployment remained at its record high rate of 11.4 percent in the 17 countries that use the euro.

Politically in the U.S., a strong rebound would be great news for a Romney presidency or an Obama legacy. And it would do much to enhance or repair the brand of either of the political parties, whichever holds the White House, before the 2014 congressional elections and the 2016 White House race.

Jared Bernstein, former chief economist for Vice President Joe Biden, said presidents actually have the greatest impact on economies when markets fail.

But, he added: "We will never live in a world where presidents don't take credit of for an improved economy on their watch."

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