Israel grapples with prospects of war

By Amy Teibel

Associated Press

Published: Monday, Aug. 13 2012 10:25 p.m. MDT

JERUSALEM — To attack or not to attack? With Israeli politicians warning repeatedly that Iran is secretly pursuing nuclear weapons, this question has spawned an unprecedented amount of agonizing even in a country accustomed to war and incessant debate.

The teeth gnashing plays out everywhere from the halls of parliament to news talk shows to people's living rooms. Should Israel undertake a risky mission to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities? Should it trust the United States to do the job if necessary? Can it live with a nuclear Iran? Should politicians even be talking about this in public?

"A country that is debating whether to attack or not to attack usually doesn't spill its guts," said veteran Israeli journalist Motti Kirshenbaum. He noted that Israel's usual pattern is to dissect a military offensive after it happens — not discuss it beforehand.

The public appears to be largely taking the furor in stride, in part because some suspect Israel's leaders are essentially bluffing in order to compel the world to get serious about the issue. But there is a growing sense of foreboding: Even Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who is believed to favor an attack, says hundreds will die in the counterstrike, and there is awareness of the global security and economic mayhem that war with Iran could unleash.

Never in Israel's history has there been so much talk about an impending war, security affairs analyst and Iran expert Yossi Melman wrote in a column on the Walla! news website on Monday.

"It's one thing for the media to blather about it, but why are leaders and senior officials chattering themselves to death?" he asked.

Although Israel's leaders frequently lament about all the Iran "chitchat," make no mistake: It's they who are fueling the discussion.

The Iranian threat, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday, "dwarfs any challenge the Israeli home front faces."

True, no Israeli leader has explicitly threatened to attack Iran. Netanyahu and Barak — considered here the main champions of a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities — have said no decision has yet been made. But they sometimes seem at pains to make sure the message is not missed.

Netanyahu has been warning about an Iranian nuclear threat since the 1990s, invoking comparisons with the Holocaust and sidelining all other foreign policy issues during his latest tenure as prime minister.

In recent months, amid the intensity of economic sanctions and boycotts against Iran, there have been hints of self-congratulation related to the theory that only Israeli saber-rattling could have pushed a world eager to mollify Israel and prevent an attack in this fortunate direction.

But of late the media here has filled with leaked reports attributable to "senior officials" projecting a sense that patience is growing thin: The sanctions don't go far enough, and although they have fueled inflation and hammered the standard of living in Iran, they fall short, especially because Russia and China notably refuse to fall into line.

Hints dropped privately by senior officials and multiple warnings by Israeli leaders about time growing short have created the impression here that Netanyahu and Barak have given up on the idea of pressuring Iran through economic and diplomatic sanctions, and are out to attack by early fall unless Iran abandons its uranium enrichment program, a key element in making atomic weapons.

"The hot topic on the Israeli street is when will the war break out and where to take cover in the event of a missile attack," Melman wrote.

Talks between Iran and world powers are effectively stalled with no firm date to restart following June's session in Moscow.

At the heart of the talks is how much the West is willing to allow Iran to enrich uranium, which at low levels creates fuel to power reactors but can be boosted to weapons grade material. Iran insists it will never surrender its ability to make nuclear fuel, but says it seeks reactors only for energy and medical applications.

Israelis scoff at Tehran's insistence that its nuclear program is peaceful, and many believe a nuclear-armed Iran would be a threat to Israel's survival.

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