ECB holds off to force politicians' hand in crisis

By David Mchugh

Associated Press

Published: Tuesday, June 5 2012 12:00 a.m. MDT

FILE - In this May 31, 2012 file picture President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi reports to the Economic Committee, in capacity as the head of the European Systemic Risk Board, at the European Parliament in Brussels. The European central Bank's 23-member governing council meets Wednesday June 6, 2012. No cut is expected in its benchmark interest rate, which has already been lowered to a record low 1 percent. Draghi wants politicians such as Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and European Commmission President Jose Manuel Barroso to come together on far-reaching and potentially controversial action to fix what’s really wrong with the euro at a summit June 28-29 in Brussels. Then, analysts say, more help might be forthcoming.

Yves Logghe, Associated Press

Enlarge photo»

FRANKFURT, Germany — The European Central Bank has a powerful weapon that just might push political leaders into solving the continent's financial crisis once and for all: withholding further help.

The ECB isn't likely to take any new steps when it meets Wednesday, analysts say, even as anxiety builds over the deteriorating outlook for Europe's economy and banking system.

ECB President Mario Draghi signaled last week that he wants to see stronger political and financial ties among the 17 countries that use the euro. If such ties are agreed to — possibly at a European Union summit later this month — analysts say the ECB would be much more likely to reward European governments and banks with the financial shot in the arm that they desperately need.

No cut is expected in the ECB's benchmark interest rate Wednesday, which has already at a record low of 1 percent. And there's little prospect that it will serve up more cheap emergency credit for shaky banks, after it already has handed out €1 trillion ($1.24 trillion) in December and February.

It's a risky game because the eurozone — the 17 countries that use the euro as their currency — is in big trouble. Investors have turned their focus on Spain amid concerns that it will not be able to find enough money to prop up its struggling banking sector. This has pushed the country's borrowing costs on the bond markets to worrying heights, making it harder to keep paying its debts as they come due. There are concerns that Spain may join Ireland, Greece and Portugal in seeking international assistance. However, because Spain's economy is so much larger than the other three, any bailout would seriously strain other countries' resources.

The eurozone's banks have also been a key part of Europe's government debt crisis. Bailing out the banks is a huge burden on financially shaky governments, and weak government finances in turn hurt the banks that hold those governments' bonds. Most powers to regulate banks have been left with national authorities, who have been seen as protective of their domestic financial services industries at the detriment of Europe's banking sector.

And in just over two weeks, Greece returns to the polls with a real danger looming that it might elect a government that rejects the terms of its multi-billion-euro bailout. This could force the country out of the euro, irreparably fracturing the eurozone and further roiling markets.

A Spanish default, banking collapse, or a Greek euro exit, could spread financial shock waves and shove the global economy into another recession. The world's markets have fallen on fears that this is around the corner.

Over the past week there has been a concerted push by some of Europe's leading authorities to get the region's leaders to act — and quickly. Last Wednesday, the European Union's executive body, the European Commission, called on politicians to work on founding a central authority with the financial muscle to fix its broken banks. The very next day, Draghi laid down a forceful challenge to politicians, describing the current setup of the 17-country currency union "unsustainable" and calling for a clear vision for reworking the foundations in place since its launch in 1999.

"Dispel this fog," he urged members of the European Parliament in Brussels.

Analysts say the ECB has a strong motive for staying put until it sees some movement from governments.

"The ECB looks tired of being the eurozone's fire brigade and seems to have a preference for staying on hold," Carsten Brzeski, an analyst at ING in Brussels, wrote in a note to investors. "It looks like the ECB will want to keep the pressure as high as possible to tackle political complacency."

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