Nuclear test could be North Korea's next step

The U.N. Security Council called an emergency meeting Friday to discuss its response to the launch. The U.N. will be hard-pressed to say something, but any criticism could actually increase the chances of a North Korean nuclear test.

North Korea has described past sanctions or condemnation of its launches as evidence that the United States and its allies want to deny what it calls its sovereign right to defend itself and develop its technology. That, it turn, is used to justify ignoring demands that it not conduct nuclear tests.

"They could use that to push forward with a nuclear test, as they have done in the past," Thielmann said.

Cossa said the U.S. and the U.N. would need to push hard to deter North Korea from another test, but added that the prospects of serious penalties seem remote because China will "continue to water down any attempt by the U.N. Security Council to take strong action."

"If the international community is serious about trying to deter another nuclear test, then the UNSC needs to discuss penalties in advance and make it clear to Pyongyang what the consequences will be, in the form of stricter, and strictly enforced, economic and financial sanctions," he said. "Beijing will also have to send a credible message to Pyongyang that it is serious this time about enforcing sanctions."