Rogelio V. Solis, Associated Press
Mitt Romney's weak appeal so far with white evangelicals will be in the forefront as the GOP presidential primaries move into Southern states where most Republicans are born-again Christians.
While polls show the former Massachusetts governor and Mormon comfortably ahead among Republicans nationally, he will spend the coming week in heavily conservative territory that could underscore his vulnerability with a key segment of his party.
In the five states so far where evangelicals were a majority of GOP primary voters, Romney has trailed either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich among born-again Christians by an average of 20 points, according to exit polls. About 4 in 10 evangelical voters who were asked said it was deeply important that a candidate share their religious beliefs.
Still, exit polls also show an opening for Romney to draw a bit more of the evangelical vote. In Ohio and Tennessee, evangelicals who said shared religious beliefs are less important when choosing a candidate were significantly less likely than other evangelicals to see Romney as too moderate.
The key question for Romney is whether enough of these evangelicals are present in the contests ahead.
Nationally, Gallup's daily tracking poll finds Romney with a double-digit lead among Republican registered voters, and running even with boldly conservative Rick Santorum among those who attend religious services weekly or more. The latest delegate tally by The Associated Press shows Romney on pace to secure the nomination in June, unless he stumbles and his rivals can force an unlikely fight at the Republican National Convention in August.
But in Mississippi, he faces an electorate that was about three-quarters evangelical in the 2008 presidential primary. In Alabama, about two-thirds of GOP primary voters identified themselves as born again. Both states vote Tuesday, with Louisiana to follow on March 24.
John Green, a University of Akron political scientist who analyzes religion and voting, said he noticed that Romney generally does better, although not well, among evangelicals in larger metropolitan areas. These urban born-again voters are found in greater numbers in states where Democrats and Republicans are more competitive, such as the Midwest. Kansas is scheduled to hold its caucuses Saturday, and Missouri and Illinois contests are scheduled near the end of the month.
However, pragmatism may win out among some Bible Belt Christian voters, since large groups of Republicans have said repeatedly in exit polls that they are seeking a candidate who can beat President Barack Obama in the general election.
"What these numbers suggest is that he has a chance to expand his support among evangelicals," Green said. "I don't know exactly what it is that Romney would have to say to persuade them, but it doesn't seem like his religion or the things he's been saying are necessarily a barrier."
It's impossible to know how much Romney's Mormonism has been a factor.
On politics alone, many Republicans are wary. Romney once supported legalized abortion, which he now condemns, and enacted a health care coverage program as governor that many conservatives consider government overreach. In Ohio on Super Tuesday, nearly half of evangelicals said Romney's positions on the issues were not conservative enough.
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