ATHENS, Greece — Greece's race to slice €107 billion ($140 billion) off its national debt entered its final stretch Thursday, with markets confident enough private investors will decide to accept a deal to write down the value of their Greek bond holdings.
If too few investors agree and the swap fails, the crisis-hit country will likely default on its debt in less than two weeks, prompting renewed turmoil in financial markets and knocking confidence in the global economy.
But markets appeared confident that Greece would muster enough support. Greece's stock exchange was up 1.9 percent, while the Stoxx 50 of leading European shares edged up 1 percent. The euro was trading 0.6 percent higher at $1.3220.
Athens is asking private creditors to swap their Greek bonds for new ones with a 53.5 percent lower face value, lower interest rates and longer maturity dates.
By early Thursday, banks, pension funds and other investors holding more than half the €206 billion ($270 billion) total debt in public hands had pledged to take part. New legislation will allow Greece to force holdouts into accepting the deal if overall participation is not high enough.
Investors have until 10 p.m. local time (2000 GMT) to sign up. Only bonds held by private investors are part of the deal, meaning that outstanding amounts held by the European Central Bank and other central banks are exempt.
The complex bond swap, known as the Private Sector Involvement, or PSI, is critical for Greece to secure a €130 billion ($171 billion) package of rescue loans from other eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund. Without the funds, Greece faces a potentially messy default that could drag down other financially vulnerable countries in Europe and threaten the joint currency itself.
"The most likely outcome remains that Greece will receive enough acceptances to move ahead with the deal and trigger the second bailout package from the EU," said Gary Jenkins, managing director of Swordfish Research.
Athens has said it needs 90 percent participation for the deal to be successful. However, it has said it can trigger legislation to force holdouts to go along if creditors holding between 75 percent and 90 percent sign up.
The Institute of International Finance, which has been leading the debt talks for large private creditors, said 32 firms holding €84 billion ($111 billion) of Greek bonds have agreed to the deal, including major German, French, Greek and Cypriot banks. German reinsurer Munich Re, which holds some €1.6 billion ($2.1 billion) in Greek bonds, also said it will participate.
On top of that, some €17.5 billion ($23 billion) in bonds owned by Greek social security funds but managed by the central bank will also be part of the swap. Five social security funds which hold about €3 billion ($3.9 billion) in bonds have voted against participating, while another eight had signed up to the deal by Thursday morning.
However some creditors, notably hedge funds, are expected to hold out, hoping to scupper the deal and trigger the payment of credit default swaps — essentially insurance against a default. The use of legislation forcing holdouts into the swap, known as "collective action clauses" could also trigger the payment of CDS, an event which is determined by the International Securities and Derivatives Association.