No surprises expected from guv's proposed budget

SALT LAKE CITY — Gov. Gary Herbert already has announced what's likely to be the biggest news about his proposed state budget, scheduled to be released Monday.

Late last month, Herbert said the state expects to end the current budget year with a $128 million surplus and can anticipate $280 million in revenue growth in the new budget year that begins July 1, 2012.

Despite having additional money to spend for the first time since the 2008 economic crash, nobody expects to see any costly new initiatives in the governor's proposed budget. Nor is there much chance he'll recommend any tax increases or fee hikes.

"I don't think they'll be any major surprises," said Ron Bigelow, the governor's budget director. "The governor often makes the statement that expects government to do more with the same money."

University of Utah political science professor Matthew Burbank said because 2012 is an election year for the GOP governor, the budget likely will focus on basics such as education and economic development.

"I would guess … you wouldn't see anything very new or innovative. I think going into this election, you would see a return to some standbys," Burbank said. "I would doubt the governor is going to promote any big ideas or big spending."

Any boost in revenue in the new budget appears to be all but spent already, to cover the increased costs of providing Medicaid care, educating additional public school students and other pressing expenses.

Lawmakers already have their own list of spending musts that analysts warn may well exceed $500 million, depending on how they deal with increased expenses in a wide range of areas, including worker benefits, prisons, state parks and services for the disabled.

And leaders of the GOP-dominated Legislature have made paying off the so-called $52 million "structural imbalance" a priority, a shortfall that resulted from using one-time monies to plug ongoing budget gaps.

It's not clear if Herbert also will recommend wiping out the entire structural imbalance in his proposed budget. Bigelow said only that the governor generally agrees with legislative priorities.

There appears to be a new sense of cooperation between the executive and legislative branches over the budget process, after a somewhat rocky relationship, especially last year.

Herbert called the 2011 Legislature's decision to initially chop 10 percent from the budget before deciding what could be added back "draconian" as well as convoluted and confusing to the public.