New BYU poll suggests tea party influence on the decline

PROVO — The influence of the tea party movement on Utah voters is on the decline with all but the strongest Republicans, a new Brigham Young University poll shows.

The April 2011 poll by BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy compared support for the tea party movement in November 2010.

Kelly Patterson, center director, said the poll suggests that voters may not like the direction they see the tea party taking the GOP even though they agree with the overall ideals of the movement.

"It's not just about dissatisfaction any more with the government," Patterson said. "Now it's about real people, real leaders, real endorsements."

The poll, posted online at utahdatapoints.com, showed among all voters, less than half — 46 percent — had a favorable view of the tea party in April 2011, compared to 53 percent in November 2010.

The percentage of respondents who identified themselves as active supporters of the tea party dropped from 22 percent in November 2010 to 20 percent in April 2011.

The poll was of 793 voters recruited at polling places throughout Utah in past elections and consisted of an online survey that had to be completed between March 31 and April 11. The margin of error is reported at slightly more than plus or minus 3.9 percent.

Tea party organizer David Kirkham said he was surprised by the poll results. He said he has not seen any decline in interest in the tea party.

"I think a lot of people are on our side out there," Kirkham said. "There are a lot of people who have woken up."

The drop in support among voters who call themselves independent, independent Republicans and not-so-strong Republicans comes as tea party are targeting some elected officials for their support of a controversial immigration law.

Delegates to last month's state GOP convention narrowly voted for a resolution calling for the repeal of HB116, which creates a state guest worker program for illegal immigrants.

The bill had the support of the Republican-dominated Legislature as well as GOP Gov. Gary Herbert. Kirkham said after the vote that backers of the legislation should be worried about being re-elected.

At the same time, longtime Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, is increasingly likely to face a challenge in 2012 from Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, a tea party favorite.