Northern Utah water outlook is dismal

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's northern region is parched and thirsty with a slim chance of achieving desirable snowpack by April, while the extreme southern portions of the state are faring much better, the latest numbers show.

Provided by the Natural Resources Conservation Service and National Weather Service, the Utah Water Supply Outlook report paints a grim picture for two specific northern regions: the Weber/Ogden River basins, with snowpack the worst it has been in 10 years, and accumulations of snow in the Bear River Basin just as bad.

"We have 60 percent of normal snowpack on average in Utah, and north of Nephi, what that really means is that we have a really weak snowpack," said Brian McInerney, senior hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Salt lake City.

Extra-dry soils coupled with low-moisture snowpack will produce a poor runoff this spring if current conditions persist — not ideal for the state's reservoirs, which are at 66 percent of capacity on average, according to the report.

McInerney cautioned that January's numbers do not necessarily equate to water shortages this summer. The 2009 water year, which sputtered along inconsistently, was saved by an intense late March storm that dumped 14 feet of snow at Alta in 14 days and June rainfall that climbed to 400 percent of normal.

Isolated events like those are not probable, he concedes, but the state, of late, "has never really been seeing 'average.' "

The disparate water outlook for the various regions of the state stems in part from "much below" December precipitation in northern Utah and "much above" precipitation totals recorded in the south, where the Virgin River Basin is 148 percent of normal and southeastern Utah sits at 122 percent of normal.

More contradictions are found in an OK soil saturation level in the north because of last year's wet spring and dry soil levels in the south because the storms missed that portion of the state, McInerney said. Soil saturation is down anywhere from 2 percent to 15 percent compared to January of last year.

With the rest of January, February and March still looming to produce additional snowpack, water forecasters are hopeful the wide range of possible outcomes — breaking out of the dry cycle, for example — will produce healthier precipitation totals.

"The good news is when you start the snow accumulation year this far down, there is a very high probability that things will improve somewhat over the next few months," the report noted, adding there is an 80 percent to 90 percent chance that the Bear River Basin will be better by April 1 than it is today.

"Not great, or even near average, but at least better," the report noted.

e-mail: amyjoi@desnews.com