Gov. Herbert's budget oozes optimism

Just call Gov. Gary Herbert an optimist.

His first state budget, set to be released Friday morning, will paint a rosier picture of the state's budget woes than the up to $1 billion revenue loss predicted by some lawmakers.

"The shortfall is not going to be as dramatic as people are expecting," Herbert's chief of staff, Jason Perry, told the Deseret News. "I think people will be surprised at how we're able to handle the needs of the state, surprised in a good way."

That's because the governor's proposed budget will anticipate the revenue shortfall closer to the low end of the $650 million to $850 million range forecast by legislative analysts.

Also, the spending plan for the budget year that begins July 1, 2010, contains no tax or fee increases, as the governor promised earlier this year. "It's a very good budget," Herbert said Thursday.

Perry said the GOP governor is optimistic that Utah is in a much stronger position than other states to recover from the nation's economic crisis.

Lawmakers, though, are more fearful about state finances.

They're already talking about the shortfall reaching $1 billion, and raising at least some taxes during the 2010 legislative session that begins in January.

"We hope (Herbert's) budget will be real," said House Majority Leader Kevin Garn, R-Layton.

Garn said he believes the shortfall could reach $1 billion. Senate Budget Chairman Lyle Hillyard, R-Logan, now says it may be closer to $700 million or $800 million.

Lawmakers will approve a budget based on new revenue estimates due out in February. Those numbers could prove Herbert right — or wrong.

Whatever the shortfall turns out to be, less money will mean more budget pain, like no pay raises for state workers, college professors or school teachers plus across-the-board program cuts.

The financial situation is so bad, Hillyard said, he hasn't seen anything like it during his three decades in the Legislature.

"I was the House budget chairman in 1986-87 when we raised taxes just to stay even, saw the tax protest movement build up. This is the most difficult budget we've ever had to put together," Hillyard said. "There is no light at the end of the tunnel, although there's some hope that state revenues will stop dropping, and start rebounding, some time soon."