Retail figures point to subdued holidays

Published: Monday, Nov. 16, 2009 8:26 p.m. MST
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WASHINGTON — Improved retail sales gave Wall Street a boost Monday, but provided little hope for a robust holiday shopping season that might invigorate the economic recovery.

The October figures, driven by a surge in auto sales, exceeded economists' expectations. Yet consumers are so squeezed by tight credit and rising unemployment that economists don't expect to see significant spending until well after year's end. Even optimists predict scant improvement over last year's holiday season.

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of total economic activity, so wary shoppers are a worrisome sign for retailers entering the crucial holiday season.

"U.S. consumers are no longer panicked, but they remain cautious," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "They are spending just enough to keep the economy out of recession, but not enough to fuel a self-sustained expansion."

Retail sales rose 1.4 percent last month, the Commerce Department said. But excluding a big rebound in auto sales, the gain was just 0.2 percent. Strength at general merchandise stores like Wal-Mart and Target was offset by sales declines at furniture stores, appliance stores and hardware stores.

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Zandi said one telling statistic about household finances was that the number of bank credit cards in circulation has fallen 18 percent since the year began. That's happened as banks facing soaring loan losses have tightened credit standards.

Consumer credit has now fallen for a record eight straight months through September and households are struggling to manage their debt levels after the most severe recession since the 1930s.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Monday of "important headwinds," such as the weak job market and tight credit conditions. These forces "likely will prevent the expansion from being as robust as we would hope," he told the Economic Club of New York.

On Wall Street, major stock indexes rose more than 1 percent to new 13-month highs after the retail sales figures were released. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 136 points to 10,406 and the Standard & Poor's 500 index closed above the 1,100 mark for the first time in more than a year.

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, resumed growing in the July-September quarter at what the government estimated was an annual rate of 3.5 percent. That was a sharp rebound after a record four straight declines in GDP.

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Matt Rourke, Associated Press

Nicole Molavi, left, loads her cart with the help of cashier Christina Picone at a Walmart in Deptford, N.J.

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