The future looks a little brighter for Utah's small businesses, as the national economy finally begins to grow again, according to a monthly assessment released Tuesday by Zions Bank.

The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah was 75.7 in October, up from the revised 70.4 of September.

The Zions index gauges how favorable conditions are for small businesses as seen through the eyes of their owners or managers. It is based on a 100-point scale, with 1997 as its base year. The higher the number, the better the business conditions are.

National economic growth has to happen before the state's economy can grow — something that is finally beginning to occur, the report said. But the return to growth in the third quarter of 2009 "from an extended period of painful economic contraction" doesn't mean that problems with housing, commercial real estate, rising unemployment and continuing job losses are in the past, it said.

Estimated 3.5 percent real annual growth from July to September doesn't overcome a 6.4 percent real annual decline in the first quarter of 2009 and a 0.7 percent decline the second quarter. The U.S. economy shrank 3.7 percent after inflation in the 12-month period that ended in June. The report calls that "the most painful decline since the Great Depression."

Utah's unemployment rate was up in October to 6.2 percent from 6.0 percent the month before. Over the past 12 months, Utah has shed about 51,500 jobs. Higher unemployment, incidentally, is considered good for Utah small businesses because they have more options for hiring. But the report noted that "more recently, job losses, leading to lesser income creation and softer retail spending, have a negative impact upon Utah's small businesses."

Increased consumer spending was good news to the U.S. economy, as it rose at a 3.4 percent annual rate — the biggest gain in three years. The report attributes much of that spending to federal government stimulus efforts like Cash for Clunkers and the $8,000 first-time homebuyer's credit.

Decreased product inventories is also seen as a harbinger of growth to come, because shelves are now so empty "as to require additional manufacturing output in coming quarters," the report said.

The official end to the recession is a yet-to-be-made call by the National Bureau of Economic Research. In 2010, the bureau is expected to look back and say the recession ended during the just-concluded summer months, the report said. The bureau in December 2008 announced that the recession started in December 2007.

The index, which goes back to 1990, has been hovering in the 70-point range this year, down from its previous worst year in 2008, when it was 86.8. The annual index reached a high of 126.1 in 1994.

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