There's a good case to be made that BYU will lose to TCU and Utah will be upset by Air Force today.

But to make a pick, you debate the case.

Back in August, I picked TCU to go undefeated and win the Mountain West Conference championship. There's been little evidence to switch that prediction mid-season, especially after BYU lost to Florida State and the Frogs are significantly superior to Bobby Bowden's one-game-pony team. That alone should seal it for Gary Patterson's Frogmen.

On the other hand, in the Bronco Mendenhall era, his coordinators have shown a penchant for predictable game plans (just execute), which backfired. You saw it in strange losses like Florida State, the first Boston College game in Provo, the last San Diego State win over the Cougars in San Diego, and last year's abrupt cruise-control embarrassment at TCU.

With that history aside, when BYU does pitch change-ups, a less-predictable BYU can be pretty good. Ask Oklahoma.

BYU has plenty of different looks for TCU this time around, if they avoid turnovers and get into a slugging match. TCU's great defense hasn't faced this kind of firepower this season.

Utah will play without key tackling safety Joe Dell, and neither corner has played significant minutes in facing Air Force's flex option attack. That could spell disaster, even if the rest of the Ute defense is solid.

On the other hand, AFA's quarterback play has been spotty and inconsistent and the pass isn't a huge threat at all. Utah can focus on the dirty work at the line of scrimmage, a Ute strength.

Utah's offense has been steady, but not exactly great, and is prone to fumble. Air Force brings in a Top 10 defense that will gash the Utes over mistakes. The Falcons lead the league in turnovers gained with 21 and it isn't even close (Colorado State has 16).

On the other hand, Kyle Whittingham's record in big games, bowl games and times that call for superior performances is remarkable. Today's stage is set to become one of those times.

The Aztecs appeared to expose BYU's pass defense weaknesses a week ago with Ryan Lindley making huge plays, the kind TCU might try to simulate.

On the other hand, SDSU offensive coordinator Al Borges had two weeks to prepare and sprung eight trick plays never before seen on film, plays that were saved just for BYU. Four were successful against a Jaime Hill defense with a game plan centered on run defense, for some reason.

TCU's offensive strength is running plays, a BYU strength on defense. But will Andy Dalton try to be Ryan Lindley? And will it work?