As the money flowing into Utah government coffers continues its precipitous decline — the latest revenue report shows a 22 percent drop in the first quarter compared to last fiscal year — state officials are preparing to solve a math problem that will require covering an estimated $850 million shortfall.

Those officials are currently delivering mixed signals on how that gap might be filled, but finding new revenue, including raising taxes, is looming as an unavoidable reality. The agency charged with exploring new taxing possibilities, the Utah Tax Review Commission, labored throughout the summer and will submit findings on a trifecta of new tax plans for state leaders to consider.

Gov. Gary Herbert says he won't cover the deficit by raising taxes in the balanced budget he's required to submit to legislators later this year. However, he has not committed to vetoing any tax increase approved by lawmakers.

GOP Senate leaders acknowledge a tax increase on cigarettes and tobacco, a perennial issue that hasn't found support since 2002, probably has the votes to pass next session.

House Republican leaders told the Deseret News that cuts alone will not cover the gap without seriously hurting critical state programs like education and human services, and that $100 million in new taxes will be required.

Where those new taxes could be applied, what lawmakers could raise in terms of new revenues and whom they would impact are questions asked and answered in three focus areas analyzed by the Tax Review Commission this year. The 19-member board explored applying new, higher tax rates to cigarettes, tobacco and unprepared food, and the board considered performing a wholesale reworking of state sales and use tax to apply to all "final consumption" — anything purchased by consumers, including services. Here are the findings that will make their way to lawmakers:

Cigarettes and tobacco

While the smoking rate in Utah has been in steady decline since the '70s, the amount of money collected by the state on cigarette and tobacco sales has steadily increased, due to ongoing tax hikes. The current tax rate of 69.5 cents a pack was set in 2002 and is among the lowest in the Western states.

Two different proposals put forward by lawmakers last year advocated increases, including a bill pushing the per-pack tax to $2. If implemented, the bump adds about $48.5 million to the revenue stream.

The Tax Review Commission study indicates there is some correlation between raising prices and reducing smoking rates, but not one that is definitive. On the flip side, the tax is regressive in nature and targets those with an addiction, according to the study.