Ethics, taxes early tests for Herbert's leadership

Opposing a popular movement, whether it's pro-ethics or anti-tax, is often a difficult act for a politician.

And while you can find any number of public servants who like to say "just do the right thing and the politics take care of themselves," the ones saying that are usually the guys with high job-approval ratings and safe seats.

The people who bucked the public's desires and lost their offices are rarely heard from.

Utah state politicians are facing a double-whammy in 2010 — ethics reform and taxes.

If two citizen groups can each get 95,000 signatures of registered voters — a pretty big "if" — their initiatives (now doing very well in the polls) will be on the 2010 ballot for voter approval or rejection.

And unless something amazing happens to state tax collections, legislators and Gov. Gary Herbert will be faced with upward of an $850 million budget gap when lawmakers come into January's general session.

GOP legislative leaders say that gap can't be closed only with further budget cuts without really hurting state programs — like public education and Human Services. They suggest at least a $100 million tax hike.

The clear political decision for GOP politicians?

Support the legislative ethics and redistricting initiatives. Vote against tax hikes.

But for a number of Republican state officeholders, the choice may well be to oppose the initiatives and vote for a tax hike.

And those decisions may well come with voter backlash next year, when all 75 House members and half the senators (along with Herbert) face elections.

In the end, GOP legislators and Herbert, a Republican who runs for the governor's seat on his own next year, may well come out of this political pickle just fine.

Most GOP legislators are in safe districts, little chance of defeat by a Democrat or another Republican.

Herbert's path is less certain.

Lieutenant governor for five years to the popular — and now gone — Jon Huntsman Jr., Herbert is not well-known to most Utahns.

And while Huntsman (and former Govs. Olene Walker and Mike Leavitt) were GOP moderates, Herbert is a conservative who doesn't believe global warming is caused by man and appears lukewarm on government ethical reforms.

This summer, several possible GOP challengers to Herbert have stepped aside, and currently there is no credible Republican taking on the governor.