Future jobs are a gigantic question mark

WASHINGTON — The first Labor Day, held in New York City in 1882, was less a celebration of the dignity of work than a demonstration in favor of the eight-hour day, down from the prevailing 10 to 12 hours. Compared to then, American workers have come a long way. Congress made Labor Day a national holiday in 1894, and over the years, it evolved into a day off rather than a moment to reflect on the state of labor, broadly defined and extending beyond unions. Well, not this year.

It's the bleakest Labor Day since at least the early 1980s (unemployment in September 1982: 10.1 percent). With the unemployment rate at 9.7 percent in August and expected to go higher, cheery news is scarce.

The Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank, has painted a statistical portrait of today's labor market. Here are some lowlights:

Since the recession's start in December 2007, the number of lost payroll jobs totals 6.9 million. A third of today's jobless have been unemployed more than six months, almost double the share a year ago and a post-World War II high.

Wage growth has slowed dramatically. In the first half of 2007, all private wages and salaries rose at an annual rate of 3.7 percent; in the first half of 2009, the increase was 1.3 percent.

The unemployment and "underemployment" rate is 16.8 percent — this includes the officially unemployed plus all part-time workers who'd prefer full-time jobs, as well as discouraged and demoralized job-seekers who have stopped looking for work.

Job anxiety has also increased sharply, according to opinion surveys compiled by Karlyn Bowman of the conservative American Enterprise Institute. A Gallup poll in August found that 31 percent of workers worried about being laid off, up from 15 percent a year earlier; 32 percent thought their wages might be cut, up from 16 percent; and 46 percent feared fringe benefits might be reduced, up from 27 percent.

What's most ominous is not today's job market; it's the outlook. After the 1981-82 recession, unemployment dropped steadily from an annual average of 9.7 percent in 1982 to 7.5 percent in 1984 and 5.5 percent in 1988. The descent this time is expected to be much slower. In 2014, the unemployment rate will still average 7.6 percent, forecasts IHS Global Insight, which predicts a peak of 10 percent early next year. Reducing unemployment requires an economic expansion fast enough to absorb today's jobless plus the natural growth of the labor force. Most forecasters expect a tepid recovery will only gradually dent unemployment, despite slowing labor force growth.