Real Salt Lake: Be optimistic or realistic about playoff chances

With nine games remaining in the MLS regular season, Real Salt Lake is three points out of a playoff position. The deficit doesn't seem like a daunting challenge, and it isn't if the club strings together some wins ASAP.

Realistically, though, for a team that hasn't won back-to-back games since April, consecutive wins seem very unlikely. RSL will likely have to nickel and dime its way into the playoffs, where every point is precious.

Real Salt Lake general manager Garth Lagerwey believes the magic number to qualify for the eight-team MLS playoffs this year is 43 points. RSL is 16 points shy of the magic mark, and to get there needs an average of 1.7 points per game over the next nine games. For a team that has averaged 1.3 points per game this year, it obviously needs to pick up the pace.

RSL's players and coaches keep reiterating that there's still time to climb back into the playoff picture — which is true. That's assuming, of course, that the team starts winning more games — and particularly road games. As impressive as its 6-1-4 home record is, RSL's 1-7-2 road record is one of the worst in MLS.

RSL must improve on the road to have a mathematical hope of making the 2009 MLS playoffs.

Here's a game-by-game breakdown of two likely scenarios for RSL over the final nine games. The first is an optimistic scenario that should be good enough to secure a playoff berth. The second is a more realistic scenario in which season-long trends pinpoint a more realistic outcome.

Aug. 23 — at New England

Optimistic: RSL battles hard for 90 minutes without suspended defender Jamison Olave and earns a valuable road point. Draw.

Realistic: With just one road win all year and playing a home team just as desperate for points, RSL falls behind early again and never recovers. Loss.

Aug. 26 — vs. Chivas USA

Optimistic: RSL keeps its playoff hopes alive with an impressive offensive outburst against a struggling Chivas squad. Win.

Realistic: Even though RSL is 2-2-2 all-time at home against the Goats, its opponent has been a mess since June and RSL capitalizes with the full three points. Win.

Aug. 29 — at Kansas City

Optimistic: Playing its third game in seven days, RSL keeps compact defensively and escapes with a respectable tie. Draw.

Realistic: RSL's busy schedule takes its toll in the second half as fatigue kicks in and RSL leaves the Midwest with no points. Loss.