Utah 1Q job-loss estimates revised

Many more Utahns lost their jobs during the first quarter of the year than previously reported, according to the state Department of Workforce Services.

The department's top economic analyst told the Deseret News that monthly employment data had been underestimated when it was originally reported during the first three months of 2009.

For example, February's job-loss total was estimated at 26,000 but has been revised to 50,247.

Senior economist Mark Knold said the data were compiled using survey methodology developed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics using a sampling of Utah employers to determine the number of people working in the state each month.

"So what you end up doing on an ongoing basis, month after month after month, is making the estimates of the employment growth or loss from the surveys (of employers) and (additional) data later through the unemployment insurance system," he said.

He said the survey method in the past has actually been quite reliable in predicting the numbers that come later and Utah has a history of being one of the better states in predicting the job numbers.

However, Knold said that two things seemed to have changed, and they both happened at the end of last year.

"One is the economy itself. Employment has never dropped this fast before, so the survey had no precedence to follow or guide it," he said. "Second, the Bureau of Labor Statistics had changed some of the surveying methodology and the individual states have less input."

He said those changes made it more difficult to gather accurate statistical data from employers.

"The bureau will probably review all of this next year and make adjustments, but it doesn't help at the moment," he said.

Knold also noted that "we will probably never see this kind of employment volatility in the future."

The survey does very well in a less-volatile economic environment, he said. Because of the historically poor economic environment, Knold said he could forgive the survey its shortcomings.

"The survey still has great value in that it will capture the flow (or direction) of the economy, and it should capture the point at which the employment losses start to reverse," he said.

Kendall Oliphant, senior vice president of Thredgold Economic Associates, told the Deseret News that having such profound revisions is "certainly disconcerting" but also likely a result of the historic economic turmoil the state and nation are experiencing.

"It brings us more in line with what is happening around the country in terms of job losses," he said. "This tells us that Utah's economy is struggling as much as everywhere else."

He added that while locally the recession has been described as mild, these revised numbers suggest otherwise.

"People who are actually losing those jobs … they've known for a while how bad things are," Oliphant said.

He said the new, more-accurate data will help improve analysts' understanding of the economic situation going forward.

"Getting accurate data is a challenge," Oliphant said.

"They do the best they can with limited information, and that's just the reality we have to live with."

e-mail: jlee@desnews.com