Opponents seek to deny Karzai first-round win

KABUL (AP) — Critics decry his government as corrupt and ineffectual, the economy is in the tank and the country is racked by an insurgency led by the very people he helped oust from power eight years ago.

Nevertheless, President Hamid Karzai is the odds-on favorite to finish first in Afghanistan's Aug. 20 presidential election. The best scenario for his opponents is that the 40 others in the race — including two women — can win enough votes to deny him a majority. That would force a runoff — in which Karzai would be vulnerable if the other hopefuls can rally around a single alternate candidate.

Whatever the outcome, President Barack Obama hopes the election will allow the U.S. to "transition to a different phase" in the conflict, handing over more responsibility to Afghans and eventually withdrawing American troops. Obama has sent thousands of reinforcements to Afghanistan to help bolster security for the balloting.

In a chaotic country gripped by war, it is difficult to predict how the candidates will fare. Few reliable polls have been made public, although many Western diplomats believe the race is Karzai's to lose.

A survey conducted in May for the International Republican Institute found that only 31 percent of 3,200 Afghans questioned said they would vote for Karzai — well below the 55 percent he won the 2004 election. Still, he was far ahead of his second place rival, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah with 7 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Karzai's campaign staff dismiss that poll as outdated. Since the survey, Karzai has forged alliances with numerous tribal leaders and elders from the country's ethnic communities. Karzai can probably count on winning most of the votes cast by his fellow Pashtuns, who make up about 40 percent of the population and most of the Taliban.

Karzai, the urbane English-speaking son of a Pashtun tribal leader, came into power shortly after the 2001 fall of the Taliban regime and had the strong backing of the Bush administration. He was one of the few Pashtun leaders to oppose the Taliban inside Afghanistan during the U.S.-led invasion.

But his standing has fallen hard since then. Diplomats in Kabul say Karzai has shied away from making hard choices to end the endemic corruption and increasing violence sweeping his country.

If he wins a second term, Karzai has promised to open negotiations with the Taliban to end the war and focus on building roads, improving education, boosting the economy and shoring up agriculture. Many of those goals are shared by other candidates.