Utah's economy to decline further

Utah may be in for one of the toughest economic years ever, according to a report released Monday.

The June issue of "Utah's Economy," a monthly report produced for commercial real estate firm Commerce CRG by Jim Wood, director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Utah, said "the most recent forecast for the Utah economy shows a bottom established in 2009 with some signs of growth by 2010.

"However, in terms of economic performance, 2009 will be the single worst year in Utah's post-World War II economic history."

All of the major indicators are expected to experience significant declines, with retail sales, nonresidential construction, wages and employment all decreasing by record levels, the report stated.

"Most troublesome is the increased weakness of Utah's job market," Wood said in the report. Non-agricultural employment in Utah is projected to fall by 4.4 percent, a loss of 55,700 jobs, with further losses expected next year.

"From 2008 to 2010, Utah is projected to lose 70,000 jobs," Wood said. "This level of job loss is unprecedented."

In June and July, the year-over-year declines are expected to be 5.2 percent, but moving into the fall and winter the declines will moderate so that by December employment will be down "only" 3.6 percent, he said.

A closer look at three important industries in Utah — tourism, manufacturing, along with transportation and warehousing — shows mixed effects from the recession.

Wood said it would likely be 18 to 24 months before the Utah economy experiences economic growth across most sectors.

"In the meantime, 2009 will be a difficult year with 2010 a year of mixed results," he said.

"Broad-based growth will depend on an expanding U.S. economy, a precondition for economic growth at the regional and state levels," Wood said.

e-mail: jlee@desnews.com