He has to be a clear favorite, assuming he doesn't fall into a huge political or personal scandal — and I don't see that happening.

In the end, I think Chaffetz will run for re-election, looking to shore up his base while trying to convince the 2011 Legislature to redraw his 3rd Congressional District into a very safe Republican seat — one he may return to after a run for higher office, if need be. (The late U.S. Rep. Wayne Owens, D-Utah, returned to his 2nd Congressional District seat after he lost a U.S. Senate race.)

Perhaps Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, will feel the sting of Chaffetz's popularity among Utah conservatives in 2012.

It's tough to listen to the constant drumbeat of one part of your constituency. But all that Bennett needs in 2010 is 40 percent-plus-one to get out of the GOP convention, 50 percent-plus-one to win a Republican primary and 50 percent-plus-one to win re-election for another six years.

Deseret News political editor Bob Bernick Jr. may be reached by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com.