Looking to challenge Bennett? Watch it; he's shrewd

Now freshman Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, says he won't close the door on running against Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, next year.

Bennett must be wondering what's next? Hemorrhoids?

Utah GOP governors, U.S. senators and representatives are some of the safest officeholders in America. Unless you are Merrill Cook. Or Chris Cannon.

Chaffetz last year achieved a major upset when he unseated Cannon in the closed Republican primary.

Now, after appearing on CNN (Chaffetz is one of two freshman representatives the network is following in their first year in office), being embraced by conservative Republican state delegates and becoming something of a rising political star, Chaffetz is feeling his oats.

And why not?

He should be enjoying the ride he's on.

Hey, it's better than being Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.'s chief of staff or kicking a football through the goal posts, two of his past occupations.

But a warning to all those Republicans thinking of taking on Bennett next year. Bob Bennett is no Chris Cannon or Merrill Cook.

Bennett may not look the part, but he's a shrewd, back-room political operator. He has a lot of money. And can raise a lot more. Bennett has golden boy Mitt Romney in his corner, and who knows how many times Mitt may come to Utah next year to help Bennett out.

Conventional thinking used to be that one had to beat an incumbent Republican in the state party convention. But Cook was defeated in a 2000 GOP primary. And Chaffetz took out Cannon in the 2008 Republican Party primary.

However, those were congressional races — a smaller number of voters, many of whom didn't bother to vote anyway. Should Bennett get past the May 2010 GOP convention, he'll face a statewide primary vote. And, considering there will be a governor's race next year, maybe even a gubernatorial GOP primary, there will be a lot of interest in Utah politics.

The bigger the turnout, the better chance an incumbent has.

As you may know, the Utah Republican Party closes its primaries — you have to be a registered Republican to vote in them. But if you are not registered in another party — if you are an independent — then at the polls on primary election day you can register as a Republican and vote in that election.

So while hard-core conservative Republicans may be angry with Bennett over federal spending or this or that, the moderate, middle-of-the-road Republicans and independents certainly outnumber the right-wingers, even in Utah. And it will be tough in the five-week-long primary campaign for any GOP challenger to outspend, outcampaign and outmaneuver Bennett.