Iraq to free itself from U.S. troops slowly, painfully

While Americans were glued to the Iran drama, we arrived at a critical turning point in Iraq.

The United States on Monday withdrew its combat troops, with a few exceptions, from Iraqi cities, in accordance with a security agreement with Iraqis signed in November. (All U.S. troops are supposed to be out of Iraq by the end of 2011.)

During my last trip to Iraq, in December, it was hard to imagine that this large-scale shift of men and equipment could be completed in such a short time. However, as Gen. David Petraeus told me in an interview, "The process of removing our combat bases from cities is on track and will meet the deadline." Quite impressive.

Clearly, many Iraqi players will try to use the pullout to advance their own agendas. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, with an eye toward the January 2010 elections, is calling it a "great victory" against occupation. Others are hoping to restart civil war: A wave of lethal bomb blasts in Shiite neighborhoods last week killed about 200 people, and a car bomb exploded in the northern city of Kirkuk on Tuesday, killing at least 27 people. (Violence overall is still way down, but these incidences stoke fearful memories.)

So the big question is, what happens now? In my phone conversations with several Iraqis, each said the pullback would spur new violence. Many shadowy groups — from al-Qaida fragments to Iranian agents to mafiosi — will test the ability of the Iraqis to take on more of the security burden.

"We have been concerned by the sensational attacks carried out by those trying to revive sectarian violence," Petraeus said.

The good news is that spurts of violence are unlikely to rekindle full-scale sectarian warfare. Sunnis have been chastened, and Shiites no longer fear the old Sunni order will be restored. "We've had a bellyful of that bloody fighting," one Sunni resident of Baghdad told me, "and no one wants to return to that."

Moreover, some U.S. troops (the number hasn't been made public) are staying in cities as trainers and advisers. "There is an agreement reached for the establishment of coordination centers that will remain in Baghdad, Mosul, and Basra," Petraeus said, "and will allow U.S. forces to share information, coordinate activities, and, if required, provide U.S. enablers to assist Iraqi forces."

Teams of advisers partnered with Iraqi units also would remain, Petraeus added, to ensure sharing of intelligence, coordination of operations outside cities, and access to requested assistance.