A measure of Utah's small-business climate slipped even more in May, though a rebound in the national and global economies is expected to improve Utah's situation.

The Zions Bank Small Business Index for Utah, released Tuesday, was 64.9 in May, down from a revised 66.6 in April.

The index measures business conditions from the viewpoint of the Utah small-business owner or manager. It uses 100.0 for calendar year 1997 as its base, with a lower index number meaning less-favorable conditions for Utah's small businesses.

"Economic and financial challenges abound for both developed and emerging nations across the global community," Jeff Thredgold, president of Thredgold Economic Associates and economic consultant to Zions Bank, said in a prepared statement in the index report. "However, significant increases in stock markets in recent months around the globe suggest the worst is behind us.

"Renewed, but modest, U.S. economic growth expected before the end of 2009, combined with reasonably solid growth in China and India, suggest the global recession could conclude by mid-2010. … Performance of both the U.S. and global economies are components of the Small Business Index. A return to positive, if modest, U.S. economic growth would be a positive contributor to the index. A return to positive global economic growth would also lead the Index higher."

The most heavily weighted component of the Utah index, Utah's unemployment rate, was 5.2 percent, unchanged from the previous month. That rate compares to a 3.3 percent rate a year earlier. A higher Utah unemployment rate is a positive contributor to the index because it implies increased access to Utah labor. Total Utah employment is down an estimated 39,800 jobs during the past 12 months.

The national economy lost an estimated 345,000 net jobs in May, roughly half the average loss of the prior six months and the best performance since September 2008, and the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 9.4 percent.

"The net decline of nearly 3.1 million jobs during 2008 was the worst year since 1945, with an additional 2.9 million jobs lost in 2009's first five months," Thredgold said. "The net decline of 6 million jobs is a painful contrast to the average gain of 1.9 million net new jobs annually during 2005 to 2007. Such job losses are likely to continue in coming months as the U.S. economy struggles with the worst recession in the post-WWII period. Note, however, that most forecasters see the recession concluding before the end of the year."

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