Utah Republicans can't rest assured of easy victories now

Last week, this paper reported that the number of Americans affiliating with the Republican Party is at only 23 percent, a quarter-century low. This bad news for Republicans is compounded (or perhaps caused) by the internal dissension within the national GOP, congressional Republicans' inability to articulate an agenda and the steadfast popularity of President Barak Obama. However, the GOP remains strong in Utah, with 44 percent affiliation, a number that has held steady for 25 years. These dynamics raise a number of questions:

Are Utahns behind the times, or just good loyal Republicans who will ultimately benefit when the pendulum swings back?

Webb: Most Utahns support Republicans because Republicans have managed the state well, maintaining fiscal health, avoiding tax increases, allocating scarce resources effectively to education and infrastructure, providing a safety net for the truly needy and maintaining a great quality of life. However, Utah GOP leaders can't take anything for granted. Most Utahns (even independents) are moderately conservative, but they aren't strongly partisan. Many Utah Republicans are happy to cross over and vote for a moderate Democrat. The success of Rep. Jim Matheson and Salt Lake County Democrats is proof of that.

Pignanelli: "Anyone who tells you the Republican Party is on its way back is smoking grass." — Frank Luntz, national pollster. Traditionally, Utahns are prescient in choosing leaders who are ahead of the political curve. From 1925-1932, Democratic Gov. George Dern was an outspoken and effective progressive builder of social programs, foreshadowing the New Deal. In the Democrat-controlled 1970s, Utahns chose early front-runners of the "Reagan Revolution (i.e. Jake Garn, Orrin Hatch) to represent them in Washington. At the current trajectory, the national Republican Party will soon be uncomfortable for most Utahns. A Southern-based anti-immigration GOP, led by the likes of Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh, dominated by evangelicals suspicious of Mormons is no place for Utah conservatives. Now is the opportunity for Utah Republicans to assert their tradition of choosing leaders reflecting 21st-century dynamics of the global economy and tolerance for others.

Can Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. take advantage of the GOP disarray and emerge as a realistic presidential contender by providing a centrist, forward-looking, "New Republican" agenda that can lead the party out of the wilderness?