Against that backdrop, you have the statistical certainty that the viral mutations that killed an estimated 20 million people worldwide in 1918 will come again. In a recent meeting with the Deseret News editorial board, former Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said of pandemics, "They're just a part of biologic fact. ... And what's occurred in previous centuries is it always catches people by surprise."

No surprise this time, which may be why many people are skeptical. The irony, of course, is that more than 13,000 Americans already have died from flu this year — from the regular, old-fashioned, stay-in-bed-and-drink-plenty-of-liquids flu. So why have about 150 deaths in Mexico (as of this writing) raised the world's temperature to near panic levels?

My guess is that the answer lies, again, in 1918. The garden-variety flu tends to kill very small children and the elderly — people with weakened immune systems. But in 1918, the Spanish flu killed young adults and otherwise strong and healthy people. It caused strong immune systems to attack the infection with such force that it overwhelmed the body. And, unlike normal flu, it attacked during warm weather months in the northern hemisphere. Both of these characteristics define the current outbreak.

In 1918, the Wasatch Front went into a virtual quarantine. Salt Lake County was divided into zones, with a county physician put in charge of each one.

Is the current "imminent pandemic," as the World Health Organization termed it this week, going to be similar? Who knows? But you wouldn't want to be the public official who under-reacted.

Jay Evensen is editor of the Deseret News editorial page. E-mail: even@desnews.com. Visit his blog at www.deseretnews.com/blogs.