Although winter refuses to go away, this is the time of year when a lot of green political shoots poke their heads above ground to test their viability. Enormous interest exists in municipal races this year and the partisan contests in 2010 and 2012. A big focus is the prospective 4th Congressional District, which could be contested in 2010 or 2012, depending on congressional action.

Will the congressional redistricting map developed in a 2006 special session be utilized? (It creates a new 4th District that includes southwestern Salt Lake County and the entire western side of the state down to Washington County, while reducing the 2nd District to Salt Lake City, east Salt Lake County and the Park City area.)

Pignanelli: "Reapportionment is a political thicket best avoided by the Courts" (Justice Felix Frankfurter). The 2006 map is likely to remain in place, although there will be tweaks to accommodate potential candidates for the new position. The revised 2nd District is in many ways a "gimme" to incumbent Rep. Jim Matheson. A majority of the voters will be Democrats or independents leaning Democrat. (The remaining congressional districts will be solid red.) Some national Republicans are complaining that just giving a district to Democrats is bad politics. But Matheson is so appealing and politically formidable, the Utah GOP is shrewdly acknowledging his strength and limiting it to two counties.

Webb: The 2006 map still makes sense (you can see it at this address by scrolling down the page: www.le.state.ut.us/~2006S5/bills/sbillenr/sb5001.pdf) but might require tweaking due to population changes. Republicans won't give up entirely on the newly configured 2nd District, but a win there will require a moderate, common-sense, non-ideological Republican like KSL Radio host Doug Wright or Salt Lake Chamber executive Natalie Gochnour. Another Republican being mentioned is Michael Kennedy, who lives in the city and does government-relations work for Utah State University. Of course, Matheson could decide to run for governor in 2012, which would throw the congressional race wide open.

Who are likely contenders for congressional office should a new district be approved this year?