Megan Corkrey still (looong shot) on 'Idol'

For the second year in a row, there's a Utahn in "American Idol's" top 10.

But while David Archuleta was an early favorite who came within a step of winning it all a year ago, pretty much nobody thinks Megan Joy Corkrey stands a chance.

(The competition continues tonight at 7 p.m. on Ch. 13.)

Judge Simon Cowell has already gone on record with his prediction that this year's winner will be male. Paula Abdul has already predicted Danny Gokey and Adam Lambert will be the final two.

One Las Vegas oddsmaker put the chances of Corkrey winning at 20-1 — the only four (of 13) finalists with longer odds were Jorge Nunez and Jasmine Murray (who have both since been voted out) as well as Michael Sarver and Kris Allen, who are still in the competition.

Keep in mind, however, that just-eliminated Alexis Grace was 5-1.

Another oddsmaker has Corkrey at 35-1. Only Sarver (at 65-1) has worse odds.

But, again, the Utahn was seen as a bigger longshot than any of the three finalists voted out so far.

It's a far cry from a year ago, when the buzz around Archuleta was deafening. The Murray teen was being called everything from the "presumptive winner" to the "boy king."

Not so with Corkrey. The consensus seems to be that she may last a few more weeks, but she can't possibly win.

She's gotten a lot of ink for all the ink in her tattoos, for her odd dance moves, for her unusual voice and for her general quirkiness. But, while a lot has been written about the possibility that Gokey, Lambert, Lil Rounds and even Matt Giraud could win it all, Corkrey isn't mentioned in the same breath.

As with all "Idol" finalists, Corkrey has her share of detractors. But it's not just people who don't like Corkrey who think she doesn't stand a chance, it's people who do.

Like MTV's James Montgomery, who wrote that she is "beautiful and inspiring, and possesses a subtle, lithe little voice, but there is no way in the world she is going to win 'American Idol.'

"Why? Because … it's a show designed to showcase big, throat voices, capable of hitting the highs and doing runs and filling rooms and carrying tunes like 'Mandy' on Manilow night. It's not exactly a place for the subtle. Corkrey's voice doesn't seem capable of any fireworks. ... Can I see her fronting my new favorite band on indie label Saddle Creek? Yes. Winning 'American Idol'? No."

And Gina Carbone of seacoastonline.com wrote, "Man, I looove this girl's voice. Her look and sound may be a little too distinctive to win 'American Idol' (this show encourages middle-of-the-road vanilla), but I will vote for her."