In our opinion: Toughest times still ahead

By now, most of us are familiar with the story of how we got here. On the banking side, it happened with risky mortgages that were subsequently chopped up and sold as securities to financial institutions far and wide. That mess may take years, and a lot of pain, to clean up.

But on the personal side, it happened in a lot of ways. Some people ran up credit card debts that greatly exceeded their ability to pay, purchasing a lot of stuff that isn't worth much. A lot of people borrowed against the equity in their homes, operating under the assumption that home prices always would rise. If worse came to worst, they reasoned, the house could be sold and the recouped equity would cover the debt with plenty left over. It seemed a safe assumption. After all, for most people alive today, inflation has been a lifelong companion.

Many Utahns like to think they are more frugal and fiscally conservative than average. But a recent report by the nonprofit and nonpartisan research group Utah Foundation shows this isn't true. Like lemmings, Utahns followed the nationwide borrowing and spending patterns of the past three decades. And like lemmings, many of them will be going over a cliff.

The foundation report found Utah ranks 19th nationally in terms of mortgage debt per borrower. It gets even worse when you compare this to median household income. Then, Utah ranks 11th. And as for those credit cards, revolving debt in Utah went from $1,600 per household in 1980 to $7,700 in 2007, adjusted for inflation.

As a result of all this, Utah may not have seen the worst of the current economic downturn. People with little debt can weather bad times, including job losses, without too much disruption. This is especially true if, instead of debt, they had a habit of regularly putting money in savings. But people with a lot of debt end up in foreclosure or bankruptcy when jobs are lost, and that ripples through the local economy. The report suggests the brunt of this problem may lie ahead in Utah.

It all seemed so easy during good times. Consumption drove even greater prosperity, leading to jobs and a seemingly endless wave of innovation and cheap products. Houses seemed more like money machines than places to live. But that sort of prosperity can't last if it isn't backed by real wealth.

There were plenty of voices warning Utahns to do otherwise during boom times. Now, however, isn't the time to chastise over lost opportunities. It is time to acquire better habits and to resolve to keep them forever, regardless of whatever national trends come along.