Utah joblessness nears 5%

With Utah's unemployment rate creeping toward 5 percent, the Utah Department of Workforce Services will watch the number of new unemployment claims filed throughout March, as the month will be the bellwether for the rest of 2009.

If the claim numbers ease off in the next month or so, the economy will likely recover during the third and fourth quarters of 2009, as economists originally forecasted for Utah.

But if claim numbers remain high beyond March, economists will have to revisit the expected depth and duration of the recession, DWS announced Monday when it released its monthly employment and unemployment data.

From January 2008 to January 2009, the number of nonfarm wage and salaried jobs in Utah contracted by 1.6 percent. About 20,400 jobs have been removed from the Utah economy in that time, lowering the total wage and salary employment to 1.2 million.

The unemployment rate in January was 4.6 percent, up from 3.2 percent in January 2008. About 64,300 Utahns were considered unemployed in January, compared to 43,400 in January 2008. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics defines unemployment as the number of people age 16 and older actively looking for work.

Utah Department of Workforce Services chief economist Mark Knold originally predicted that for the 2009 calendar year, there would be a contraction of 2.5 percent in employment in comparison to 2008. That's nearly 31,500 fewer jobs.

The -2.5 percent employment growth forecasted for 2009 is an average, Knold said, and some months may see an even lower number, as Knold believes recovery will begin in the last two quarters of the year.

But Knold is prepared to revise the employment numbers if the claims "stay high into April," he said.

The hardest-hit industry in Utah has been construction, with 14,000 jobs lost between January 2008 and January 2009. The rise in unemployment in construction began in September 2007 with the downturn in residential building. "There really isn't any more to lose in residential," Knold said. "It's kind of bottomed out. It's the non-residential that we're worried about."

About $1.5 billion of the $787 billion federal stimulus package is headed to Utah. State and local governments will receive about $213 million for road projects, which will create about 6,000 construction jobs, Utah Department of Transportation executive director John Njord has said.

Knold said the jobs created by stimulus money will only slightly help the state's economy.

"I don't anticipate the stimulus at all turning our negative construction numbers into positive numbers," he said. "It will just dampen the amount of lost jobs."

Interestingly, the recession is hitting men harder than women in the Beehive State, because the worst-hit industries are comprised mostly of male workers. For instance, construction is an industry that is 80 percent male workers.

Manufacturing has lost 8,800 jobs in the past year. Seventy percent of its workers are men.

E-mail: lhancock@desnews.com