State's snowpack for rest of season remains uncertain

Hoping for more winter weather? That's what the Utah Water Users Association is doing as the state's snowpack for the rest of the season remains uncertain.

"This year looks a lot like last year," Randy Julander, Natural Resources Conservation Service data-collection officer, said in an association meeting Thursday. Last winter also had a few cycles of big snowfall and many periods of no precipitation.

Historically there's a 45 percent chance of "normal" moisture this winter statewide, he said. However, he noted that normal doesn't happen most of the time.

One of his paramount concerns is soil moisture. The statewide average is currently about 38 percent. If soils are dry come spring, substantial snow melt will just be absorbed by parched ground and not end up in reservoirs.

"We really are hoping for a little more snow," Julander said.

Lake Powell and Bear Lake likely won't fill again this year, but otherwise Utah's reservoirs should have no water restrictions. Bear River has a huge 1.1 million acre-foot hole to fill up and Lake Powell's level is still 83 feet below the full mark.

Pineview Reservoir is expected to fill this spring and Willard Bay could as well.

According to Chris Wilkowski, of the U.S. Geological Survey, Utah's water reservoirs currently run the full spectrum — near empty to near full — but spring runoff is projected to be 85 percent of average statewide this spring.

"We're under no reservoir restrictions this year," he said. "We're in a little better shape than last year."

Brian McInerney with the Salt Lake office of the National Weather Service said an alarming temperature trend is that overnight lows in the state are about 7 to 9 degrees above normal. The daytime high temperatures are about average, but the night lows are significantly warmer, and that type of climate change causes premature snowmelt.

Regarding forecasts for the rest of the winter, Utah is in "neutral conditions," he said. That means there's no way to predict the weather beyond seven days.

"It's nothing but haze and high pressure," McInerney said.

The only thing he's almost certain about is that January will end with below average snowfall, while the rest of the winter is up for grabs.

Most river flows in Utah were below average in 2008, but Wilkowski said the Colorado River drainages are above average for the first time in a decade.

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E-mail: lynn@desnews.com