Israel finds itself at crossroads in Gaza invasion

Published: Monday, Jan. 12, 2009 2:23 p.m. MST
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Despite the truce talk, Israel appears to be in no great hurry to halt its fire. The fighting has killed 870 Palestinians, but only 13 Israelis. Israel believes it has the upper hand, and may see a military escalation as an opportunity to pin Hamas to the wall, maintaining the Gaza blockade while at the same time safeguarding the border with Egypt.

Yet so far no amount of Israeli firepower has made Hamas budge, at least not publicly.

In Syria, Hamas' exiled leader Khaled Mashaal said Palestinian fighters in Gaza are doing well.

"Rest assured about the resistance. It is steadfast in the battlefield and politically. It will not be broken despite the massacres, destruction, sanctions and executions that are taking place," Mashaal told visiting Arab guests.

Israeli intelligence has concluded, however, that Hamas has taken huge hits and may well be ready for a cease-fire. This is in line with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's statement over the weekend that Israel is "close" to achieving its goals in Gaza, and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's comment that "we have proved to Hamas that we have changed the equation."

Two other elements work against dragging out the fighting in Gaza: Israeli elections on Feb. 10 and the inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama on Jan. 20.

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Both Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are running in the elections. A military escalation that results in high Israeli casualties could reverse an upward trend now being seen in their poll numbers, especially if Israelis' current overwhelming support for the war begins to wane.

Many Mideast watchers are expecting Obama to be more willing to take Israel to task than President George W. Bush ever was. That expectation was bolstered when Obama told ABC on Sunday that he wanted to adopt "a new emphasis on respect and a new willingness on being willing to talk" to Iran, Israel's archenemy.

In the same interview, Obama expressed unequivocal support for Israel's right to defend itself. However, with hundreds of civilians being killed in Gaza and international pressure growing for Israel to stop, it is unlikely Israel's leaders would put Obama to the test.

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Steven Gutkin is AP's bureau chief for Israel and the Palestinian territories.

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2 bits | Jan. 12, 2009 at 5:09 p.m.

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Associated Press

Israeli reservists are seen before crossing for a combat mission into Gaza, near Israel's border with Gaza, in southern Israel, Monday.

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