Stock futures slightly lower ahead of Alcoa report

Published: Monday, Jan. 12, 2009 8:53 a.m. MST
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NEW YORK — Stock futures pointed slightly lower Monday, as investors tread cautiously ahead of the unofficial start to earnings season with a report from Alcoa Inc.

Wall Street is expecting fourth-quarter and full-year numbers to be particularly bleak, especially after several companies warned last week that they are being hit hard by the recession.

Alcoa, which releases its fourth-quarter results after the market closes Monday, said last week it would cut 13,500 jobs, or 13 percent of its work force, and sharply reduce production as it struggles with falling demand due to the worsening recession overseas.

Analysts are expecting Alcoa to report a loss of 10 cents per share, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters.

Chip maker Intel Corp., which reports results Thursday, and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. offered downbeat forecasts as well last week, adding to investors' anxieties. The corporate warnings have made it difficult for investors to keep shrugging off bad economic data, as they had been in recent sessions. If companies are struggling, the recession may last longer than the market had anticipated.

And the warnings are expected to continue. Analysts predict many more companies will be forced to reduce or withdraw their guidance for this year amid the economic uncertainty.

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"There will probably be some reductions in guidance or some watering down of guidance," said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. "That is probably going to prove to be a bit unnerving as well."

Wall Street is coming off of its worst week since November. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 4.8 percent for the week, the Standard & Poor's 500 index slid 4.5 percent and the Nasdaq composite index lost 3.7 percent.

On Friday, stocks faltered as the Labor Department's employment report showed the unemployment rate jumped to 7.2 percent from 6.8 percent in November, more than the 7 percent economists predicted.

There are no economic reports scheduled Monday, but investors will likely be anxious ahead of the Federal Reserve's beige book, its assessment of the economy by region. The report, which will be released Wednesday, provides details about the strengths and weaknesses in each part of the country.

Ahead of the market's open, Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 15, or 0.18 percent, to 8,508. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell 1.40, or 0.16 percent, to 884.10, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 0.50, or 0.04 percent, to 1,222.

The financial sector will likely remain in focus Monday, as Citigroup nears a deal to combine its brokerage business with Morgan Stanley.

Meanwhile, much attention will be given to activity in Washington, ahead of President-elect Barack Obama's inauguration next week. Obama is pushing lawmakers to release the remaining $350 billion of the financial industry bailout funds. Several senators have predicted a vote in Congress is likely as early as this week. Investors are also awaiting more details of Obama's stimulus package, which includes big tax cuts and has an estimated price tag of nearly $800 billion.

Bond prices were mixed early Monday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.43 percent from 2.36 percent late Friday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, was unchanged from Friday at 0.07 percent.

The dollar rose against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Light, sweet crude fell $2.35 to $38.48 in electronic premarket trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.59 percent, Germany's DAX index was down 0.31 percent, and France's CAC-40 lost 0.76 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 2.83 percent. Japan's market was closed for a national holiday.

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