Oil prices fall to '04 levels despite OPEC cuts

Published: Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2008 8:28 p.m. MST
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At the same time, consumers had been changing their traveling habits in the wake of higher fuel prices and environmental concerns. The government reported last week that between November 2007 and October, Americans drove 100 billion fewer miles.

Whether OPEC will be effective in limiting supply, remains to be seen. The cartel has had difficulty in the past addressing overproduction, with members regularly ignoring quotas. That makes investors skeptical about any pledge by the group to honor their commitments.

Khelil, asked whether the latest cut would be enacted, said: "I can tell you it's going to be implemented and implemented very well, because we don't have any other choice."

If past and present commitments are honored by the 11 members under production quotas, OPEC, which produces around 40 percent of the world's oil, would sell less than 25 million barrels a day.

But the cuts are failing to catch up to market realities. Earlier this week, OPEC cut its own demand forecast by about a million barrels a day. OPEC warned falling prices could jeopardize crude supply as investments are reined in.

There were hopes that Russia would ally itself closer with OPEC, but its announcement that it would cut production appears largely symbolic.

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Russian Deputy Premier Igor Sechin and Azeri Energy Minister Natik Aliev announced cutbacks of a total of more than 600,000 barrels a day.

But with Russian production falling, due in part to lagging investment, it was unclear whether some of the cuts enacted or proposed were simply a way of packaging Moscow's inability to keep up present output levels.

A member of the Russian delegation, who asked for anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly, said joining OPEC was not in his country's best interest.

Russian membership in OPEC would give the organization more leverage, with control of 50 percent of the world's crude.

Still, individual producers are already pulling crude off the market. There is oil being stored in supertankers at sea to avoid bringing it to market.

"You've got a commodity that people are buying less of because they can't afford to buy more," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. "People are fearful. They have a lack of confidence in the economy. They're closing their factories."

As dire as the current economic atmosphere is, the global economy will rebound eventually and supply problems remain the same: oil is getting harder to find every year.

It is not a matter of if oil prices will rocket again, it is a matter of when.

"The guy on the street should not be seduced by what is happening right now and should be thinking about putting money away for a rainy day," said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service. "When this economy rebounds, everyone is going to be talking about the mythical 'they,' ... the ones responsible for uncomfortably high energy prices."

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Ouahab Hebbat, Associated Press

Iran's Hossein Nozari, left, talks with Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah from Qatar on Wednesday.

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