Voters flee GOP, but no shift left is seen

Summary

The 2008 presidential election saw the biggest partisan shift in a generation — more of a rejection of Republicans than an embrace of Democrats — but voter surveys find no broad ideological realignment behind that shift.

Democrats made up 39 percent of the electorate and Republicans 32 percent in a national exit poll for The Associated Press and television networks. That left the share of voters considering themselves members of the GOP lower than in any presidential election since 1980 and was a sharp contrast with the 37-37 split between the two parties in the 2004 election.

But there was virtually no change in the ideological spectrum: This year 22 percent called themselves liberal, compared with 21 percent in 2004; 44 percent moderate, compared with 45 percent; and 34 percent conservative, same as four years ago. Since at least 1992, liberals consistently have comprised 20 percent to 22 percent of the electorate, while the conservative and moderate numbers have been a little more volatile.

The figures suggest that despite Tuesday's broad victory for Obama and Democrats in Congress, voters nationally have not shifted significantly leftward — something Democrats may bear in mind as they take full control of government in January eager to reshape federal policy.

Then again, some voters can't be pigeonholed by ideology. For instance, one in five self-described conservatives voted for Obama. One in 10 liberals voted for Republican John McCain.

And on a broad philosophical measure, 51 percent said government should do more to solve problems, the first time even a narrow majority said so since exit pollsters started asking the question in 1994. In a likely reaction to the global financial shock this fall, only 43 percent said government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals, down from 49 percent in 2004 and a high of 56 percent during the 1994 midterm elections.

National pre-election polls had presaged the change in partisanship, which is known to follow broader trends — in this case, the precipitous plunge in President Bush's job approval ratings, the economic crisis and other factors after the GOP controlled the White House for eight years.

With huge samples — nearly 18,000 voters this year — sampling error on the national exit polls is plus or minus just 1 percentage point.

Contributing: Alan Fram, Associated Press