Recovery requires optimism

If you have a good credit history, you may have experienced an uptick in the number of unsolicited credit card applications you've received in the mail lately. If so, you'll likely be courted by banks, credit unions and mortgage lenders, too.

Thanks to the multi-billion dollar federal bailout, banks now have money to lend. They're actively seeking borrowers. The problem is, far fewer people are seeking loans. Consumers are nervous and scaling back their purchases. Many experts say this may be the year that retailers experience an industry-wide decrease in holiday sales.

While it makes sense that the money made available by the government bailout needs to circulate to stimulate the economy, most consumers are not in a "buy, baby, buy" mood. They have watched their stock investments dwindle. They're keenly aware of the higher prices they've paid for groceries, consumer goods and gasoline in recent months, although motor fuel prices have dropped considerably in the past few weeks. They are mindful of the almost-daily news reports of companies giving employees layoff notices.

All of this raises the question of whether the hastily assembled government bailout strategy is going to work.

The government has demonstrated it can infuse cash into the financial system. Somehow, the government and the private sector needs to also infuse confidence into consumers. Much of this responsibility rests on the shoulders of President-elect Barack Obama.

No president has a magic wand that can affect the economy. Some have the good fortune of happening to be commander in chief when the economy is booming. Others have been saddled with depressions and recessions.

Yet, the tone set by the president of the United States cannot be underestimated. In the face of recession, the oil crisis, high unemployment and the Iranian hostage crisis, President Ronald Reagan "changed the trajectory of America," Obama has opined. Time will tell if an Obama presidency will have the same influence.

It is difficult to compare the circumstances. The economy is deeply troubled. The nation is at war on two fronts. Foreign policy was not nearly as complicated a chess game as it is in the post-9/11 world. But the American people need reassurance that the faltering economy is Job 1 on Obama's to-do list.

On Friday, Obama met with a team of political advisors that includes billionaire investor Warren Buffett, Google Inc. Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. Obama has vowed to push through Congress an economic stimulus package "immediately after" taking office in January, if Congress doesn't act sooner.

Obama is saying the right things. But Obama recognizes perhaps more than anyone that the outcome has to measure up to his optimistic vision.