Few Tuesday surprises expected from Utah voters

Before Election Day, I write a column giving my predictions on which issues and candidates Utah voters will pick.

I always say these are only my predictions. Some years I'm pretty close, some years not so much.

This year it is really quite easy. For a variety of reasons, there just aren't many close races.

In fact, the writing on the political wall is pretty clear in major races.

I say the winners in Utah are:

• John McCain will carry Utah, but lose the presidential election. Utah hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Barack Obama may well do better than other recent Democrats have here. After all, Bill Clinton actually finished third in Utah in 1992. But, of course, it is winner-take-all in the Electoral College vote, and Utah's five votes will firmly be in the Republican column.

• Jon Huntsman Jr. will win a second term as governor. The GOP incumbent has had a rather quiet first term. His second term could be much more challenging — dropping state tax revenues, ethics reform, global warming, transportation and education funding, to name a few.

Huntsman has promised time and again that he will serve only two gubernatorial terms. If McCain were president, I think Huntsman could have had a shot at a top federal job. Now Huntsman will govern and think about 2012 — and all the different political options coming then.

• U.S. Reps. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, and Rob Bishop, R-Utah, will win re-election easily. Jason Chaffetz, who defeated Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, in the 3rd Congressional District primary last June, will go to the U.S. House.

A few GOP Utah County incumbents are kicking themselves for not challenging, and taking out, Cannon themselves. Chaffetz is young, good-lookin' and aggressive. He could be in the 3rd District for years, if he chooses re-election instead of trying to jump to a higher office. And while Chaffetz took a moderate line when he was Huntsman's first chief of staff, he's gone off to the right as a congressional candidate — and it will be tough to get to the right of him in the future, like Chaffetz got to the right of Cannon.