Analyst: Utes top pick to bust BCS

With five teams from outside the major conferences ranked in the Bowl Championship Series standings, it has been a big year for the little guy in college football. Never before have so many outside teams had a chance to crash the BCS party this late in the season. But for those teams harboring those dreams, it is unlikely that more than one will qualify.

In the second BCS standings, released Sunday, there was No. 10 Utah (8-0, 4-0 Mountain West), No. 11 Boise State (7-0, 3-0 Western Athletic Conference), No. 13 Texas Christian (8-1, 5-0 Mountain West), No. 16 Ball State (8-0, 4-0 Mid-American Conference) and No. 18 Tulsa (7-0, 4-0 in Conference USA entering Sunday night's game against Central Florida).

Since the BCS began in 1998, an outside team has qualified three times. It last happened in January, when Hawaii was routed by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.

Jerry Palm, an independent BCS analyst, said he expected one of the non-BCS teams to qualify. He has had Utah in his projections all season and has the Utes in the Fiesta Bowl.

"The Fiesta essentially gets the first choice of the at-larges, so in order for them to take Utah, the other teams would have to be significantly less attractive," Palm said in a telephone interview. "For the Fiesta, there's a chance that's possible. If Utah doesn't go there, they'd end up in the Orange Bowl in Miami. The Orange Bowl gets the last choice, and that's the most likely place for a nonmajor this season."

For a team from a non-BCS conference to be an automatic qualifier, it must be ranked in the top 12 of the final standings or in the top 16 if its ranking is higher than a BCS conference champion.

No more than one non-BCS conference team can earn an automatic bid in a year. If two or more teams meet the criteria, the highest-ranked team earns the spot. The remaining team or teams would be part of a pool for at-large bids.

To be eligible for an at-large selection, a team must have at least nine regular-season wins and be among the top 14 teams in the final BCS standings. Regardless, no more than two teams from a single conference can qualify.

There are more restrictions, but ultimately, it boils down to three teams — Utah, Boise State and Texas Christian — that have the best chance to be playing after New Year' Day, Palm said.

UTAH