Turnovers, third downs are critical for Cougars

Barry Switzer, the famed son of an Arkansas bootlegger, coached Oklahoma to three national championships. He once summed up just how college football seasons evolve from fall to early winter.

Switzer said in 12 games, six of them you play average, two you play slightly above average, another two you play slightly below average, and you have one great game and one poor game.

Which kind of games will BYU and TCU each play tonight in the Mountain West's first colossal showdown that will impact the league championship?

Oddsmakers favor BYU by a point or two.

Because this clash is at TCU, others believe the Frogs will prevail. Horned Frogs coach Gary Patterson believes it's his turn to win after losing twice to the Cougars. BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall has faith his team is made for challenges like this one.

Something's gotta give.

In TCU's favor, its man-eater defense chews up running backs and rattles the teeth fillings of quarterbacks.

In BYU's favor, the Cougars have a good enough defense to stop the Frogs and an offense that is consistent and veteran enough to hurl bullets at the Frogs' iron-clad defense.

So what gives?

The key to this game is turnovers. If BYU coughs it up, the Cougars lose. Secondary to that is the rate each team will make third-down conversions. After the Cougars rocketed to a 79 percent national-leading perch in that statistical category in September, they've dropped to 61.2 percent, which still leads the NCAA, even after going 4-for-12 against New Mexico last Saturday.

Defenses are taking away BYU's Dennis Pitta, the go-to, third-down man of September. Zone defenses that shadow him and clog the middle of the secondary are making it tougher for the Cougars to find Pitta; hence the emergence of Austin Collie and his four consecutive 100-yard receiving games.

The Cougars are lucky to have a second or third fall-back plan.

"A key to third-down conversions," says Pitta, "is being successful on first down and getting to a third-and-two or three instead of third-and-10 or 12 or 15 after a penalty on first down."

So, BYU's first play in every possession will be key for the Cougars and, on defense, for the Frogs.

TCU leads the nation in rushing defense, sacks, and total defense and ranks No. 9 in scoring defense and sixth in turnovers gained.