From Deseret News archives:
Count on growth in Utah
Actually, it is a great time. Economies go in cycles, but many indicators point toward continued growth in Utah during the decades to come, and Utah's leaders need to be prepared now to handle the impacts of that growth. That means making smart decisions today about transportation, water, education and prisons, among other things.
As part of an ongoing series of research briefs about issues Utahns have said are most important, the Utah Foundation released its study this week on state growth. It paints a picture of a state expanding at a rate almost too fast for comfort. But it also tells of decisions and projects in place that already are dealing with the impacts of what surely will come.
Utah's population grew at the third fastest rate in the nation last year, just behind neighbors Nevada and Arizona. By 2060, an estimated 6.84 million people will live here, primarily along the Wasatch Front and in the St. George area. Significantly, most people are moving to smaller cities and suburbs, while the state's largest cities have seen virtually no population growth this decade. Utahns seem to love the simple life of the small town, with its neighborhoods and friendly people. But, of course, those cities eventually struggle to remain attractive as they grow from small to large.
These trends put a strain on transportation planners, who must find ways to service those cities adequately through highways and rail service. Significantly, Utah's metropolitan areas already have a good start on a comprehensive mass-transit plan. Water also is an issue. The report cites the Bear River Project and the Lake Powell pipeline as significant contributors toward meeting the state's needs. Water will be particularly important in southern Utah.
Utahns have enjoyed relative safety from crime in recent years. As the report notes, the state's crime rate has fallen 38.6 percent since it peaked in 1995. However, much of this may be due to a booming economy. The current downturn may lead to an increase in crime that will demand more resources.
Reports such as these ought to be helpful for public officials as they prioritize the use of precious state funds. We would add that they should take a close look at the recent report from the Brookings Institution, "Mountain Megas," which identified the Wasatch Front as one of five mountain-states population centers that could play significant roles in national politics if they were to cooperate in regional planning efforts.
The charts in the Utah Foundation report are sobering. Utah's growth has been on a steady climb for decades, and there is no reason to believe that will change. Several national publications have listed Utah cities as among the most desirable in the nation for business.
No one can predict how the national economic downturn will proceed, but it is fairly certain that Utah's long-term future is sound. Less certain, however, is whether political leaders will plan well for that future.
