Report outlines growth challenges

Utah's expected booming population growth over the next half-century will create challenges with traffic congestion, crowded schools and stretched water supply, according to a report released Thursday by the Utah Foundation.

The report — which looked at a variety of federal and state projections about Utah's future — is part of the foundation's ongoing Utah Priorities Project, which began with a survey asking voters to rate the most important issues facing the state. Because growth was a major concern, the foundation researched data about it.

The foundation, which says its mission is to help the public understand complex issues, notes in its report that state officials project that Utah's population will grow to about 6.84 million people by 2060, a 146 percent increase from the 2.55 million people estimated to live in the state now.

It noted that between 2006 and 2007, Utah had the third fastest population-growth rate in the nation, and it said, "This rapid growth is expected to continue." The report said growth comes from a high birthrate plus increasing immigration by people attracted to Utah for its economy and lifestyle, which have been ranked highly.

Among challenges that growth creates is traffic congestion. "Since 1990, the total annual number of vehicle miles traveled in Utah increased more than 83 percent," it said.

It noted that the Texas Transportation Institute estimated that motorists in Salt Lake City experienced an average delay of 27 hours driving in 2005, compared to 8 hours in 1990.

It noted that state officials predict some of the fastest-growing areas in coming years will be in northern or western Utah County, and the state has developed several transit and highway-extension plans to address it.

"These plans include FrontRunner South (commuter rail) and reconstruction of I-15 from American Fork Main Street interchange to Spanish Fork," the report said.

Another challenge from growth is with schools. "Utah will continue to experience significant increases in public school enrollment over the next decade and beyond," the report said. It says state projections foresee public school enrollment growing from about 540,000 now to nearly 700,000 by 2017.

Also, it noted that enrollment for higher education has more than doubled in 20 years. It foresees that jumping especially in the short term because "people tend to enroll in higher education during economic downturns as people are laid off and competition for jobs increases."