How dry is it? Great Salt Lake nears record low

"How low can it go?" That's what you've got to wonder about the receding Great Salt Lake these days. Approaching record-low levels not seen since the early 1960s, the lake is now almost six feet below its average level and is simply not so "great" anymore.

The current lake elevation is 4,194.1 feet above sea level. The average level is 4,200 feet.

"I'm sure it's going to go back up," said Wallace Gwynn, a geologist with the Utah Geological Survey. "We're just in a dry cycle now."

Gwynn stressed that his crystal ball gets hazy when it comes to the Great Salt Lake, which is as unpredictable as the stock market.

"It may go down a little more," he said. "But I don't think it will go too much lower."

The lake is now about as low as it was in 2004 and so it may dip slightly below that in the coming weeks.

The lake is a closed basin — with no outlet — and what moisture goes into it can only leave by evaporation. The lake's level is lowest in the fall and highest in the spring.

Gwynn said it was surprising that the lake continued to shrink this year. He said that one reason is reservoir managers held more water back to make sure they could fill their reserves.

"Myself, I blame it on soil moisture," he said, explaining he thinks reservoir water holdback is a drop in the bucket compared to what dry soil may soak up.

Gwynn said northern Utah soil was at it driest level in three to four years this past spring. A lot of excess runoff simply disappeared into the ground and never made it to the Great Salt Lake.

"We soaked up a lot of water," he said.

Gwynn said there is no guarantee on any water sources going into the lake. "It gets what's left over."

Reservoirs, farmers and other users can take what they want and that can leave little or nothing to enter the lake.

Low lake levels mean more dry salt flats around the body of water, he said. Low water can limit boating and accessibility. Brine shrimp harvesters also usually find a smaller yield when the lake is low.

Lakeshore industries that extract valuable minerals from the water initially prefer a low lake level. That's because it concentrates the minerals more. However, when the lake recedes enough, those businesses may have to extend their intake canals or do other modifications to access the briny waters.

The Great Salt Lake is an indicator of its environment: Get out of the dry period and have a wet winter, it will begin to rise. But whether that wet cycle is coming this winter, or in the future, is anyone's guess.

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E-mail: lynn@desnews.com