South African leader's ouster may halt power-sharing efforts in Zimbabwe

HARARE, Zimbabwe — The power-sharing deal between Zimbabwe's president and the opposition has stalled just as the man who mediated during months of painful negotiations, South African President Thabo Mbeki, has been upended by his own political troubles.

Mbeki's party forced him to resign the presidency over the weekend amid an internal power struggle, and it's unclear how that will affect talks here even though regional leaders say they expect him to continue as their representative in the crisis.

Some analysts worry Mbeki's troubles will lead the two sides to harden their positions. Others say it might boost the opposition, which has viewed the South African as an ally of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe.

Despite the signing of a deal Sept. 15 to form a unity government, Mugabe's party and his political rivals haven't been able to agree on who will get which Cabinet posts, and their negotiators have not met since last week.

Mugabe, 84, remains president, but is supposed to cede some of the powers he has wielded for nearly three decades. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, 56, would be prime minister leading a council of ministers responsible for government policies and reporting to a Cabinet headed by Mugabe.

John Makumbe, a political scientist at the University of Zimbabwe, said power-sharing might collapse without Mbeki, crediting the ousted South African with keeping the rival camps talking. "He was able to apply pressure here and there and get them to sign the agreement. Without him I think each group is going to stick to its guns and that would be unhealthy ... the whole agreement could remain strictly on paper," Makumbe said.

Lovemore Madhuku, a lawyer who heads an alliance of about 30 Zimbabwean reformist labor and civic groups, said Mbeki's troubles might give the opposition a stronger hand by weakening a statesman accused by his critics of being too supportive of Mugabe.

That view was echoed by Nelson Chamisa, a spokesman for Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change, who said Mbeki's exit "certainly could be in our favor."

A South African political analyst, Chris Maroleng, said the African National Congress faction that forced Mbeki out of office could take a harder line on Mugabe.

The Southern African Development Community, an organization linking the region's nations, said Tuesday that unless the new leaders of South Africa express opposition, the group expects Mbeki to continue as mediator.