Did officials cry wolf with Gustav evacuation?

NEW ORLEANS — Millions fled the Gulf Coast in fear of Hurricane Gustav, billed as the apocalyptic "mother of all storms." It didn't deliver. Now, with three other storms lining up in the Atlantic some fear people might not listen next time.

And "next time" could come as soon as this week with Tropical Storm Hanna expected to head toward the east coast of Florida, Georgia or South Carolina after killing at least 21 in Haiti.

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin announced residents could start coming back early Thursday in the wake of Gustav. But the first of the 2 million people who fled the hurricane began trickling home Tuesday from shelters, many grumbling about the food, the heat, the overcrowding, the uncertainty and the frustrating wait for the all-clear.

Some evacuees, particularly in Texas, on the far fringes of the storm's path, suggested authorities overreacted in demanding they leave their homes.

"Next time, it's going to be bad because people who evacuated like us aren't going to evacuate," said Catherine Jones, 53, of Silsbee, Texas, who spent three days on a cot at a church shelter with her disabled son. "They jumped the gun."

Emergency officials strongly defended the decision to evacuate coastal areas, saying that with something as unpredictable as a hurricane, it is better to be safe than sorry — a lesson driven home by Katrina, which killed 1,600 people in the U.S. in 2005, compared with nine deaths attributed to Gustav.

Officials noted that, yes, New Orleans' levees held, and Gustav struck only a glancing blow. But when trees fell on homes, power lines went down and roads were washed out in parts of south Louisiana, there was no one around to get hurt. And there was significant damage: Early insurance industry estimates put the expected damage to covered properties at anywhere from $2 billion to $10 billion. That's high, but well short of Katrina's $41 billion.

"The reasons you're not seeing dramatic stories of rescue is because we had a successful evacuation," said Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff. "The only reason we don't have more tales of people in grave danger is because everyone heeded the instructions to get out of town."

At the same time, a top emergency planner in Louisiana acknowledged that authorities run of the risk of being accused of crying wolf.